Doncaster - 3:20 (2nd Apr 2005)

Stanleybet Lincoln Heritage Handicap

Course Description
A galloping track, ideal for the big, long striding horse, and the powerful galloper. On the round course, the track turns to the left in a most accommodating, gently sweeping fashion. Since the draw on Doncaster’s straight course can prove crucial, it is imperative that a jockey is sufficiently experienced either to profit greatly from a favoured stalls position or to overcome a poor draw

Draw Bias Over 1m
A subject of much debate. Over the years low drawn horses have had the advantage however in terms of this race, the Spring Mile, which is ran prior to the Lincoln (Friday) can provide clues to which is the preferred side (high/low)

This years spring mile was won by a horse drawn in stall 1. The placed positions were drawn from stalls 8 and 7. However the big caveat was that the pace (i.e. horses that like to run prominently) also favoured low drawn horses and in my opinion this factor is the indicator to determine which side of the draw is favoured.

A word of warning. From a stats perspective in 2004, 6 handicaps were contested over 1mile; high numbers had the call, and five of the six races were won by horses from the top half of the draw.

Analysis

Selection Divine Gift (1pt win 7/1 or better), Blythe Knight (.5 pt each-way 16/1 or better)

Firstly the key factors to consider are

a) The draw
b) Where the pace is
c) This is a big field in addition to the points above. Therefore experience is these type of events for both horse and jockey is essential
d) This is a 'over hyped' bookie-sponsored event and they know punters love the sure thing, however the stats (17% strike rate) indicate that favourites should be avoided. Low stakes advised!!!
e) Horses that can run well first time out or fit from recent runs

For me the logical approach was to divide the horses into two sets (Drawn 1-8 and 15-22). The key point here is to eliminate horses drawn toward the middle, as their chances will be ruined by having to track either high or low ‘before’ they can get into the race proper.

The next step was to determine the pace. My analysis indicates that the pace will come from horses drawn high. (Kings Thought, My Paris, Cardinal Venture and New Seeker). Little pace low with the exception Divine Gift who can blaze a trail on his own if required.

The short-listed horse were (in order of preference/ratings)

Divine gift: 11/2 (7/1)
Blythe Knight 13/2 (16/1)
Mine 7/1 (20/1)
New Seeker 8/1 (11/2)
Appalachian Trail 11/1 (20/1)
Kings Thought 14/1 (50/1)
Jazz Scene 16/1 (50/1)

To highlight value opportunities (thanks Mark Iverson), my SP is derived from simply by using the order of the betting forecast from the Racing Post (in brackets). I then keep the prices roughly the same but the forecast SP is in the order of my ratings. I will try this simple approach until I get a feel for compiling my own tissue.

Divine Gift: Loves to front run uncontested (the only pace horse drawn low). Runs well fresh and likes Doncaster and is on the ‘favoured’ side of the draw.

Blythe Knight: Just in case I get the draw bias incorrect (drawn 15), this horse should relish coming off the pace and is currently in form. However he is dropping back in trip

Mine: Will relish the strong pace of Divine Gift and loves big fields. Tough and improving. Slight negative is preference for firm going.

Footnote
The first ten horses home will be followed on a ‘stop on win’ policy. Paper traded this system last year and it seems to come up trumps.