Folkstone - 4:00 (7th July 2005)

5f - £600 Free At intercasino.co.uk Handicap (Class 5) 3yo+

Course Description
A pair shaped course that runs right-handed for 1 mile and 3 furlong. Horses that like to race prominently which are adaptable and sure footed tend to appreciate Folkstones fairly sharp and awkward right-handed bends and its frequent undulations. Runners on both the straight and the round courses need to be ridden by experienced jockeys who can keep them balanced if the ground becomes soft. This course is generally considered to be an easy course that does not really favour the long striding, resolute galloper.

Effect of the Draw
General opinion indicates a strong bias in favour of high drawn horses over 5f. However the statistics indicate that this bias only occurs in field with greater that 10 runners. Less than 10 runners, the stats indicate a marginal preference for low drawn horses. My own observations also indicate that the draw bias is sometimes dependant on the draw positions of the pace horses.

Analysis
Selection: Stargem, Simpson Mount (1pt win)

A difficult race to asses given the conflicting data. Pace indicates high selections, draw statistics indicate low selections. Therefore the short-listed horses are Stargem, Simpsons Mount (draw), Millinsky and Flaran (pace). On this occasion I will give preference to draw bias.

A dangerous decision given this is a winning Jockey/Horse combination, but last time out winner Flaran is eliminated from consideration. I am not sexist but the statistics are against female jockeys on this occasion.

Favourites have a relatively good record here but Millinskys form is difficult to gauge based on her last time out win in an apprentice handicap and I suspect the trainer is trying to take advantage of his winning form before re-assessment by the handicapper. If the draw bias is in her favour, then on speed and form ratings she will be difficult to beat. The only negatives I can find are that she has been napped by the Racing Post and therefore there is no value in her price. In addition she is been ridden by an inexperienced 7lb claimer so based on these facts I will look elsewhere.

Stargem and Simpsons Mount are ahead of Millinsky on speed ratings. If the draw bias is low then, these are the horses that should be contesting the lead at the finish. However, from the pace figures, both horses are slow starters which is a concern.

Stargem is dropping in class and is 1lb above a winning handicap mark. If she can transfer her All-Weather form to turf (and based on form ratings from her last run, she is knocking on the door) then she is an interesting selection at the price on offer.

Simpons Mount is on a winning handicap mark and dropped in class on this occasion. All his wins have been at Folkstone and Lingfield. If the draw bias works in his favour he is another who is interesting at the prices on offer by our bookmaking friends.