Ayr Gold Cup
Totesport Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap), 3yo+, 6f, Class 2
Course Description
Above all the course is admirably suited to strong galloping types since its long run-in of around 4 furlongs gives a jockey sufficient in which to make his or her run or the opportunity to ride a finely-judged waiting race.
Effect of the Draw
(courtesy of www.startingstalls.co.uk)
From a draw advantage point of view, this race is a lottery, and is best left alone. Above 25 runners, there is a spread of results across all stalls on all types of going with no section of the stalls showing a bias of any significance
Analysis
Due to the fact that the draw bias is inconclusive, I do not need to wait for the outcome of the draw before making my selections. Not a race to get too heavily involved in at this stage but worth a speculative ante-post punt
The selection process: Review all of the market leaders against the following historical trends
1. Not the favourite: The St Ledger has the best stats for the favourite; the Ayr Gold cup has the worst
2. Not 3yo or age equal or greater 7
3. Raced within 21 days
4. Weight < 9-3
5. Trained by Dandy Nicholls
6. Ran in the Stewards Cup and Portland sprint handicaps
7. Not an outsider < 18/1
Analysis (In order of ante-post prices)
Ice Planet: Favourite – eliminated
Intrepid Jack: 3yo – eliminated
Continent: 8yo – eliminated
Out After Dark: - 5lb penalty for Portland Handicap win. Improver; goes on any ground – consider
Fonthill Road: Failed on current handicap rating. Excels in soft going. Ran well in Stewards Cup – consider
Fantasy Believer: 5lbs higher than winning mark. 7yo – eliminated
Texas Gold: 7yo – eliminated
Majestic Times: - New high handicap rating, ran well last time out when impeded – consider
Pieter Brughel: - On a winning handicap mark. Won the stands side in the Portland Sprint. 2nd to Out After Dark. 4lbs better off – strong chance
Presto Shinko: Up in Class; poor chance but can't dismiss
Traytonic: too much weight 9-4 – eliminated
Appalachian Trail: New high handicap rating, need to be produced late – consider
Bygonesdays: has not run for 83 days, specifically trained for race, excels in soft ground - strong chance
Chookie Heiton; too much weight 9-8 – eliminated
Fictional: New high handicap rating. Beat Bo Mcginty who hacked up at Carlisle recently – cannot dismiss
Mutamared: Big step up in class ???
One Putra: 3yo – eliminated
Partners In Jazz – Failed of current handicap mark – eliminated
Patavellian - Top weight – eliminated
Given all factors, the horse that presents the best ante-post opportunity is Pieter Brughel @ 20/1 (1 point win - BlueSQ). When the draw is known I will review the selection list again for further selections
Labels: Principle Races
posted by Slipperytoad @ 9/13/2005 12:58:00 pm
4 comments
News Feed
4 Comments:
Another horse that has peaked my interest is Piece Offering from the Nicholls yard. Dandy’s son Adrian is already booked for the ride which is interesting given that Adrian rode Merlin’s Dancer in the Stewards and switches allegiance in this race. Need to do some more form analysis, but it seems that Dandy has been protecting Piece Offerings handicap mark by running him in condition events. Piece Offering has also contested in some listed events. Assuming that his son has the pick of the rides this time around (not the case when Fallon took the ride of Gift Horse in the Stewards) could this be the one? Also this is the only horse not mentioned in all the speculation and coverage over the going on Saturday. Currently 25/1 VC bet..
After reviewing the handicap ratings I'll take a chance in the selection of Peace Offering ante-post (£10 18/1 UK Betting)
Pieter Brueghel finished 22nd @ odds of 11/1
Piece Offering finished 13th @ odds of 16/1
In all the hype I completely missed that fact that previous winners of this race were placed (1-4) last tine out. As predicted by starting stalls, there is no draw bias in this event. I will factor these points into my selections in next year’s cavalry charge (If I decide to enter!!!)
Racing Post Comments
Plenty of in-form sprinters in this strong renewal of the Gold Cup, and two and a half lengths covered the first nine. PRESTO SHINKO came into the race on the back of two wins on quicker ground than he encountered here, but the easier going was no problem - he showed in front coming to the final furlong and held on in a driving finish. He was drawn two and was one of a group of 13 to race far side, but with the first home on the stands' side beaten just two short heads there was clearly very little bias.
After a disappointing display at Beverley on his previous start, this was a much better run by Fonthill Road, who deserves to win a decent sprint, as he's now finished a close second in both the Stewards' Cup and this race.
Irish raider Majestic Times ran a cracker to come out best of those who raced on the stands' side, having been up with the pace throughout.
Yomalo kept on well to improve on her latest run, while Fantasy Believer, who had every chance, again ran a sound race in a big handicap, and Bygone Days travelled well racing right against the rails, but he took time to pick up and couldn't quite get to the leaders. He ran a sound enough race and may well find a decent sprint before the season ends.
Primus Inter Parkes, dropped back in trip, ran his best race for a long while, running on well after missing the break. He's on a fair mark and will be interesting next time. Talbot Avenue travelled strongly for a long way but didn't pick up, while River Falcon wasn't disgraced, as he lost ground by being switched towards the far side, though he was rather marooned slightly wide of that group. Chookie Heiton is vulnerable in handicaps these days, while Peace Offering showed plenty of speed on thefar side but faded, as did last year's winner Funfair Wane, who beat only one home this time.
Another point to consider for next year is the following
Follow top jockeys in big handicaps. Jockeyship is a pivotal factor in the major Flat handicaps, especially at anything up to middle distances. When the emphasis is on split-second decisions, quick thinking, nerve and strength are crucial, and top riders win a high proportion of such races
especially a jockey that at this time of year that heads the table of the jockey's championship
Another note in respect to the draw, you dont want to be drawn in the middle
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