Doncaster - 2:25 (7 Sep 2005)

5f 140yds - totesport Portland (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) 3yo+

Course Description
A galloping track, ideal for the big, long striding horse, and the powerful galloper. On the round course, the track turns to the left in a most accommodating, gently sweeping fashion. Since the draw on Doncaster’s straight course can prove crucial, it is imperative that a jockey is sufficiently experienced either to profit greatly from a favoured stalls position or to overcome a poor draw

Draw Bias Over 5 Furlongs
The accent is on stamina and courage. Results at Doncaster this year indicate a high draw bias over this distance. Historical results for this race are inconclusive: 1998 [10], 1999 [16], 2000 [8], 2001 [9], 2002 [20], 2003 [15], 2004 [13]

Analysis
This interest in this race relates to the fact that a number of runners have entries in the Ayr Gold Cup. Therefore from an ante-post perspective, I want to asses all potential candidates in preparation for a speculative punt in that event

For selection, I’ll follow my standard elimination process based these factors

a) The draw
b) Where the pace is
c) Handicap ratings
d) This is a big field in addition to the points above. Therefore experience is these events for both horse and jockey is essential
e) This is a 'over hyped' bookie-sponsored event and they know punters love the sure thing, however the stats (17% strike rate) suggest that favourites should be avoided. Historically in this race, the jolly cannot be dismissed easily given the fate of favourites: 1034110100. Based on the stats, predicted prices and each-way terms down to 4 places, the FAV seems a good each-way bet.

From a draw/pace perspective, horses drawn high are favoured. The short listed horses are, Pieter Brueghal, Paradise Isle, Chookie Heiton, Merlin’s Dancer and Indian Trail. The only horse that holds any interest drawn low is Baltic King

Pieter Brueghal: well drawn, from the inform Nicholls yard, 2nd behind stable mate Ice Planet last time out (on my shortlist for the Ayr Gold Cup). All form over 6 furlongs. Has beaten a number of today’s rivals but history suggests that off his current handicap mark further improvement is unlikely. The issue is that any given the trainer current form in sprint events, you cannot dismiss his runners lightly!

Paradise Isle: takes a drop in class from recent listed events where she has performed poorly. On a winning handicap mark, a liking for firm going and a drop in class might do the trick.

Chookie Heiton: Another who takes a drop in class after recent Beverly listed success (from a low draw!) and just escapes a 7lb penalty for the win so definitely one for the short list.

Merlin’s Dancer: Another on my Ayr Gold cup shortlist, all wins are over 6 furlongs so this might be a prep run for the big one next week.

Indian Trail: A progressive lightly raced gelding that runs extremely well fresh and loves firm going, he is on paper the one they all need to beat (beaten Chookie Heiton and Baltic King). Stable in form, but 8lb rise in the weights brings him into unknown territory.

Baltic King: Another who drops in class and just touched off by Chookie Heiton last time out. The draw and recent trainer form all count against his selection. However this horse has been knocking on the door recently and prefers a firm surface, ridden by a well respected apprentice a bold show is expected

Front runners Mr Wolf, Merlins Dancer, Paradise Isle and Pieter Brueghel will all try and cut each other throats so may set this race up for a horse coming off the pace. I believe that horse will be Chookie Heiton (½ point win) who only needs to reproduce his last time out form to win this event and just edges it over Indian Trail for a win bet at current prices.

However, this is a competitive race with many having chances. Therefore a small bet and watching brief at my local bookmakers is the plan for today.