Doncaster - 2:45 (9th Sept 2005)

1m 6f - Ladbrokes Mallard Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2)

Course Description
A galloping track, ideal for the big, long striding horse, and the powerful galloper. On the round course, the track turns to the left in a most accommodating, gently sweeping fashion. Since the draw on Doncaster’s straight course can prove crucial, it is imperative that a jockey is sufficiently experienced either to profit greatly from a favoured stalls position or to overcome a poor draw

Analysis
The clue to this race are the age group stats
3yo 8-7-31, 4yo+ 2-13-84

Therefore, we should be looking for an improving 3yo and I think the Racing Post have got this one right in the selection of Bay Story from the in form Johnson yard. He has an impressive record in this race (2-2-9) and at Doncaster so he knows the time of day when it comes to this meeting. Bay Story is relatively unexposed over this distance, a competitive 3rd last time out in a similar event; tops handicap and speed ratings he gets the nod (1pt win).

The problem is My Immoral is the dark horse in the race and open to plenty of improvement. The 6th place horse from his Chester race has won so the form has been “franked” as they say in the business. The negatives that count against the selection are that I’m not sure that he has enough in the tank to handle the step up in class. Also the recent form of his jockey and stats at Doncaster don’t instil confidence.

Over night, I've noted that the Racing Post's "Pricewise" tipster has selected My Immoral which is a concern. I almost convinced that Tom Segal has access to informational sources not available to normal punters. He has also tipped Sendintank. As the market leader this is a crazy selection given that this is a bookie sponsored race = poor favourite stats. The historical age stats are also against Tom's selection.

Ladbrokes are the best in the business at avoiding serious gambles via their spys in various camps. The trainer of Sendintank (Stewart Williams) is well known for stable "touches" so if there is serious money during the day, I expect the odds for Sendintank to tumble as the "Magic Sign" look to reduce their losses.