Southwell 3:00 - 5th Dec 2005

3:00 5f - WBX.COM World Bet Exchange Handicap

Déjà vu as most of the runners we’ve already seen before. Who’s turn is it to win today?

3/1 Night Prospector, 5/1 Dancing Mystery, 7/1 First Order, 15/2 Moorhouse Lad, Stoneacre Lad, 8/1 Matuza, 11/1 Anfield Dream, Efistorm

My initial analysis had Night Prospector down as a legitimate favourite. After reviewing his recent win at Wolverhampton on Saturday; he had to grind down Efistrom to win but the manner of the win and the fact he was rated much higher before being claimed by his new stable may suggest that there may be more in the locker to defy a penalty from a good stall position on a surface he’s already proven on.

Dancing Mystery has only gone up 1lbs for his recent win and he is still well handicapped and again is predicted to get a soft lead and once more play “catch me if you can” from a good stall position.

First Order’s performances have improved with the addition of visors, but now at his highest BHB rating he’ll need to improve again..

Given his prominent running style I actually think that Moorhouse Lad is well overpriced on account of the fact that his previous races have been littered with subsequent winners. Finished 6th to First Order recently after a 15 week absence drops back to his preferred distance and like others his breeding suggests that he’ll act on the fibresand surface.

Stoneacre Lad is now on a winning handicap mark and cannot be discounted.

The chance of the front-running Efistrom should not be overlooked however I am very concerned about the form of his jockey on this surface (1/10/70).

This week I read an article that confirms my progressive draw data that stalls 1 and 2 have an excellent record

Hugh Tailor Trend Spotting Column – ATR

“ANOTHER All Weather trend that has continued to prove profitable has been backing very low-drawn horses on the straight course (5f) at Southwell. Previous editions of this column have suggested backing stalls 1 and 2 in handicaps over this course and distance, and whilst this has been reasonably successful this year (5-26, a tiny overall loss at SP), it’s worth noting that the simple plan of backing stall 1 blindly in all 5f races at the Nottinghamshire venue has come up trumps again, providing 10 wins from 38 runs so far in 2006 and a profit of 35pts. Whenever a 5f race comes up at this track, it’s always worth looking at stalls 1 and 2 to see if you can make any sort of case for a value bet; if you can, it’s usually worth getting involved.”

For me this data makes Dancing Mystery even more of a serious contender on a front runners track.

So, after running a number of pace scenarios in my head, here’s how I think the race will pan out..

The well handicapped Dancing Mystery (a) will lead all and hang on for the win or just piped on the line for first place. I’ll go with my initial feeling that Morehouse Lad (b) has been under rated and could win or come 2nd . The late running Night Prospector (c) might fail to get to the front runners and place either second, third or finish off the board. After reviewing my analysis again I’ve changed my mind regarding Matuza (d) who is now well handicapped and had excuses for his last two efforts. A clear run could see him finishing 2nd or 3rd. Efistrom's (e) prominent effort may fade to take 2nd position from a wide draw.

Morehouse Lad each-way
ab/abcde exacta