Lingfield - 3:40 (23rd Jan 2007)
Posted the following comments on The Racing Forum and consensus opinion arrived at a selection in Wessex
3:40 7f - pontins.com Handicap (Class 2)
I’ve seen this before.. mug punter analyses race and determines favourite is taking a major step up in class and way above his ability. Trainer knows better and horse dually obliges, mug punter left with egg on face (Atlantic Story, Wolv 19th Jan)
California Laws displays all the attributes of a legitimate favourite. David Barron knows his onions at Southwell so I’m guessing he feels California Laws is way in front of the handicapper so the hike in class shouldn’t inconvenience.
However this mug punter cannot get away from the form of Waterside. He may have been flattered by the race conditions but he comes from a key race ran over an inadequate trip where horses placed in front and behind ran 1st (Qadar) and 2nd (Party Boss) at Lingfield last Saturday. The pace in this race suggests that he’ll dominate and make the running on his own, the question will he have the stamina to hold on from a wide post position? Gut feel tells me to leave this race alone but I’ll await the opinions of the TRF massive!
Southwell 3:40 Addendum
Had chance to sleep on my musings and knocked up a tissue to assist me in my decision
9/4 California Laws, 4/1 Waterside, 5/1 Wessex, 6/1 Jimmy The Guesser, Prince Tum Tum
The jolly still looks solid, and the price for Wessex looks massive. Replaying one or two pace scenarios in my head last night suggests that Waterside will set things up for prominent ridden horses drawn low. Still looks like a no play race but will monitor the market to see if California Laws drifts to a working mans price or market confidence in Wessex..
posted by Slipperytoad @ 1/23/2007 11:05:00 am
2 comments
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2 Comments:
full time result .. trainers 2 mug punter 0
With hindsight Waterside ran against a well handicapped rival and did well to come second from a wide post position..
I tend to ignore Conditions form in my analysis but it seems that the Lingfield 3.05 (Rachel Perchard 40th Birthday Conditions Stakes) last Saturday may have all the classic hallmarks of a “key race”. The following runners have ran well when returning to Handicap Company in their next race
Qadar, placed 4th in the Rachel Perchard – next run – won @ 9/2
Waterside, placed 5th in the Rachel Perchard – next run – 2nd @ 4/1
Party Boss, placed 6th in the Rachel Perchard – next run – 2nd @ 14/1
Horses from the Rachel Perchard yet to run are
Tony James; was a 66/1 rag on the day returning after 456 day layoff so will ignore for now
Red Cape and Hurricane Sprit (placed 2nd and 3rd respectively) and Areyoutalkingtome (1st ). They’ve all gone into my virtual notebook and I’ll inform all on this thread on their next outings.
Some inverse logic applies to the winner of the Southwell race..
Through lines of form California Laws may still hold his own if running against horses rated 80-100. Not sure if there are any decent races on fibresand coming soon, however given what seems to be a preference for that surface he may be “Bismarck” material if running on polytrack next time out. I’ll monitor his next run also..
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