Southwell - 2:50 (9th Jan 2007)

2:50 5f - pontins.com Handicap (Class 4)

Depending on your psychological makeup this is a race to fear or welcome in anticipation. I of course fall into the latter camp

7/1 Pawan, Efistorm, Millinsky, 8/1 Dancing Mystery, Fromsong, 10/1 Magic Glade, Dig Deep, 14/1 Tartatartufata, 25/1 Distinctly Game, Monashee Brave

My progressive draw stats indicate that stalls 4-8 are the places to be over this distance but a 14 runner field complicates matters as stall 1 is now positioned on the dreaded far rail (supposedly the slowest part of the track..

My pace charts indicate that those that like to come from off the pace might as well not bother and it’s interesting to see in this race most of the paced horses are drawn in the key drawn positions mentioned above. However, when reviewing recordings at Southwell over 5 furlong for races of 14 runners or more what complicates matters is that the winner had one key trait that could over come any draw bias. The ability to break smartly, maintain an early pace and grab the golden highway at Southwell, the middle part of the track.

Given the predicted fast pace, I’m going to deemphasise the draw slightly and focus on horses that have the class (read stamina to maintain a fast gallop) throughout the course of the race. So action bets on

Pawan – Best chance to date. Ran extremely well (fast time) to come 3rd in a class 2 handicap from 2lbs out of the handicap. The jockey knows this course and distance well and I’m hoping that she’ll have the intelligence to break Pawan smartly to overcome the wide draw..

Dancing Mystery – Discount at your peril. In his last race he was left to do all the work and ran up against a draw bias (from stall 1), There are a number of horses that think they can set a fast pace buts he’s guaranteed to be there or there about at the finish when their legs turn to jelly..

Fromsong - A contrarian selection given his poor sire stats at the course, but I can’t dismiss the fact that Dean Ivory heads some key trainer statistics on the All Weather this season. Fromsong has been dropped to a winning mark and suggests that the handicapper feels that this will make no difference. Who am I to discount the handicapper’s judgement but to me, his pace profile is suited to this surface and recent races suggest that luck has been against him.

His poor performance at claiming level last time out was on the back of a 28 week absence where he tried to make all on a course that is notorious for hold up horses (Lingfield). Today his trainer decides to up him in grade and Fromsong is the only stable representative.. 18’s currently on Betfair I’ll monitor the market for further clues before placing a bet..