Warts and All (2nd Jan 2007)

Well .. with a New Year upon us it is that time to think about getting rid of the old and starting afresh..

In respect to punting I’ve cheating this year and decided to overhaul my handicapping methodology way back in October; the only thing I was waiting for was payment of a substantial company bonus into my betting account to support my revamped methods and techniques. So armed with strategy and process (and financial backing), what changes will we see this year?

Firstly as advised by Beyer in his book “Picking Winners”, I’m splitting my betting bank into “Prime” and “Action” bets. Aimed at highly graded flat and jumps races, Prime bets are for those gilt edged chances when you know its time to unload the betting bank with both barrels (well … not quite but you get my drift). I shall also use this fund to back what I consider to be “Legitimate Favourites” that are not odds-on..

The “Action” bank is aligned to my other decision to specialise on All-Weather racing exclusively (for the moment I am going to avoid races at Kempton) and deemphasise National Hunt races. The bare facts are that I can show a profit on the sand and I’m crap over the jumps and unfortunately … I like a mug punt now and again so the best way to manage these tendencies was to set-up another fund and point it toward something I enjoy..

This fund will be aimed at the lower grade All Weather handicaps with a specific objective to show a profit from exotic bets which in my opinion are suited to these chaotic events and ignored by the general betting public. The other objective will be hone my handicapping skills in preparation for prime betting opportunities on the All Weather.

In parallel I shall also aim the Action bank at “Notebook” horses. A review of results from these bet types indicate a small profit so this part of the overall strategy is working well and should be exploited..

The other key objective for this year will be “focus” and “discipline” in respect to the strategy.. A mini review of the last three years indicates that the strategy has chopped and changed quite often as my handicapping knowledge increased.

With hindsight this was to be expected having absorbed different handicapping techniques which pointed me in different directions (and down some blind alleys) however, now is the time to let things settle..