Lingfield 2:35 (6th Jan 2007)

2:35 1m - Pontin's Family Holidays Handicap (Class 4)

5/1 Barney McGrew, Fajr, 6/1 Waterline Twenty, Red Birr, Grey Boy, 15/2 Katiypour 10/1 Cape Greko

I’m going to learn a lot from this race. Very contentious in my book plus the current market leader has a number of negatives counting against him...

Fajr specialises in winning at Lingfield but that was off a BHB mark of 76. Since then he’s won but has been raised to a BHB mark of 82 where he’s been beaten three times. 100 day course absence and poor stable form are also counting against him..

However there are a multitude of negatives counting against the other horses in the field. I don’t like betting a maiden winner fist time in a handicap but one playable option is to side with the “first timer in a contentious race”, Barney McGrew. Also selected is Waterline Twenty as the booking of Neil Callan takes the eye and so I expect him to be ridden more prominently (unlike James Doyle who left things far too late in Waterline Twenties last race)

Pace profiling indicates that this race has no natural front runners or horses that like to press the leaders so I’m expecting a number of high priced horses to make the frame. This makes the tricast playable as follows.

The consistent Red Birr preferences are over a longer distance. With no furious pace in the race he might find events unfolding too quickly in the final stages but could lunge late for a place position. The opposite is true for Katiypour who’s preference is for shorter but runs consistently well on this surface.

(a). Barney McGrew, (b).Waterline Twenty, (c). Fajr, (d). Katiypour, (e). Red Birr

Tricast
ab/abc/abcde 12 lines @ .25p line = £3