Ayr 3:30 - totesport.com ayr gold cup
Another “moth to flame” competitive handicap I just love to punt in..
9/1 Fonthill Road, Appalachian Trail, Majestic Times, 10/1 Knot In Wood, Fullandby, Beaver Patrol, Indian Trail, Grantley Adams
The most important factor in racing is the ground and I have used this factor to eliminate most of the contenders. Also, to win these competitive group 2 handicaps you need to be bordering on listed/group class and I have used this factor during the short listing process. I’ve purposely ignored the draw as it is over hyped except if you belong to her majesties gutter press.
The front three in the tissue will be punted for the following reasons
Fonthill Road – recent race interesting rehearsal for the Ayr Gold Cup, handicapped to run well on favoured ground. Hope the overreacation on the perceived high draw bias will inflate his SP.
Appalachian Trail – Generally inconsistent, but loves the ground and this race has been a long term target
Majestic Times – The stranger and couldn’t overlook during race analysis
The exacta perm can be found here
Labels: Principle Races
posted by Slipperytoad @ 9/21/2007 09:36:00 pm
1 comments
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Note to self for next year. “Thou shalt seek out horses that have escaped the attention of the handicapper”
The draw does not make a difference is this race..
Racing Post Comments
This was just about as competitive as sprint handicaps get, featuring a whole host seemingly poised for a very big run, including the first three from the previous year, the Portland Handicap winner and the second and third from the Stewards' Cup.
They split into two groups wide apart from the off, with one runner ploughing a lone furrow down the middle, but two from each side made the first four, which suggested the draw did not have a big effect.
ADVANCED, third in 2006, had the ideal 'prep' when running well for a long way in face of a very stiff task in Group 1 company at Haydock earlier in the month,and he had clearly been laid our for this contest and accomplished the task well, leading on the stands' side over a furlong out and taking command overall near the finish.
The winner beat the others he raced with quite comfortably, and this was a very decent performance, defying the third highest weight ever carried to victory in this handicap. He had run really well over 7f the previous month and his stamina clearly helped in these conditions, but he looks a smart sprinter in the making, one who is more than likely to prove up to winning in Listed company in time.
The soft surface may not have been ideal for Benwilt Breeze as he does not stay so well as the winner, but he still ran a storming race, leading on the far side over a furlong out and surrendering the overall lead only near the finish. He clearly has the winning of a race like this.
Patavellian is not the Group 1 winning sprinter he once was, but the handicapper has relented accordingly, and he ran a fine race on the far side, particularly considering his past tendency to need his first run back after a break.
The eased ground did not help Beaver Patrol, so his was another very decent effort under a 5lb penalty for his recent Newbury win, being always to the fore on the stands' side, and he clearly remains on the upgrade.
Fonthill Road had a stiffer task if he was to reproduce last year's win, and he ran a good race from a 3lb higher mark, ahead of River Falcon, who stayed on from over a furlong out, turning in his best effort to date in this race.
Majestic Times, who was third in this in 2005, ran another good race, and he led on the stands' side to the final furlong, while Indian Trail travelled well for a long way, but he seemed not to get home. He is another who would have benefited from a sounder surface.
This may not have been the ideal race for Masta Plasta, but he again hinted that he retains ability, while Appalachian Trail ran well in the front rank for a long way but is not obviously handicapped to win a race like this.
Of the rest, Zomerlust is another probably plenty high enough in the weights, Rising Shadow made his customary slow start and could never get to the leaders, while Partners In Jazz was not disgraced over a trip on the short side for him.
Portland winner Fullandby suffered his first defeat at Ayr, never being able to challenge, while the Stewards' Cup-placed pair Borderlescott and Knot In Wood were both disappointing.
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