Warts and All (17th Sept 2007)

A very relaxing weekend…

So, to reiterate, the current strategy is to focus my attention in 3yo+ All Weather handicaps up to 1mile *regardless* of race grade. The objective is to limit the amount of racing and “specialise” (due limited time and work commitments) to gain a feel for the type of horses running in these events. If I know more than the crowd, then hopefully I should be able identify value opportunities.

Though, when approaching these race types using a “traditional” handicapping approach, results appear to be “unpredictable”. The important point to note the majority races on the all weather fall into the “lesser of evils” category therefore any handicapping approach needs to modified to take account of the following:

. The races are carded tend to be contentious/chaotic
. The horses at this grade are unreliable
. Favourites have a poor expectation
. What seems obvious may not be the case (see 2nd point above)
. Horses that drift on the exchanges usually perform poorly.
. Horses previously noted as proven losers, suddenly bounce back to form.

So why bet in these race types? In short my observations indicate that the potential wins and exotic payoffs in these race types are massive and more provide adequate compensation for long losing runs.

I have not listed all of the key notes but in reviewing my races analysis over recent weeks I have not capitalised on my observations. To be honest I’ve been a bit of a wimp lacking the type of bold selections which lead to big rewards; mainly due to lack of conviction in my selection methods. It’s difficult to be different given the environment of the races as listed above, but its time for “cojones"!

The process has been modified accordingly and includes a “crush” technique for exactas in contentious All Weather races.