Warts and All - Wager Value (8th Dec 2007)

Currently on a business trip in Colorado Springs (USA) and it is snowing.

Not your common or garden British flurry that shuts down our country for 3 days or more. The stuff that is falling at the moment is the “stop all activity and hibernate” real McCoy.

Hopefully I'll be able to fly home Saturday.

Instead of hitting my expense account drinking and eating with the other corporate types I’ve devoted any spare time I have to virtual betting and reading.

I am a fan of the author Mark Cramer and in his book on betting lines (aka tissues) “The Odds On Your Side” he discusses the need to create your own betting line from data that is undervalued by the public thereby giving the handicapper an edge.

Howerver as I wrote previously, I am amazing by the accuracy and efficiency of the betting market and with the advent of Betfair, their market seems to factor each and every piece of data (inside knowledge, other handicappers, arber's, market forces, hype etc) to produce what is a very fair assessment of the chances for each and every contender in the horse race

The question remains as a novice wanabe professional punter who is trying to match his opinion against the crowd, how can I compete against the Tefal heads that is Betfair in producing a better assessment of the horse race in question?

I must admit I am currently struggling and waver between making selections based on Betfair’s view of the market and trying to create my own with view mixed results.

Maybe I’m deluding myself and in reality the races I am punting should be passed frequently i.e "no play" and bets only placed when an edge is detected and the bookmakers are defenceless?

Maybe I should abide by Cramers mantra

There will be two main reasons for completely bypassing races and these reasons are equivalent to an inverted definition of wager value

1. No horses in the field carry any positive factors which have been identified as having wager value

2. The handicapper fails to come up with any insight for the race which would differ from what the public is expected to find

The question remains though if I am to become a pro how can I find enough lucrative opportunities to provide an income?

Under consideration at the moment are

a. In low grade All Weather handicaps forgo the tissue creation process and let Betfair do the work?

b. Expand my betting armoury i.e. look for other betting opportunities such as “Lays”, “Exactas”, “Tote Placepot”, “Trading”

c. Expand my activities into other sports?