2000 Guineas (30 April 2005)
UltimatePoker.com 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) - 1m
Course Description (Rowley Mile Course)
Right handed, the Rowley Mile course is reasonably flat in its early stages, but the ground dips 1½ furlongs before a gradual incline to the finish. The course suits galloping types and those that like to run up with the pace. Courage and stamina are also needed.
Draw Bias at 1m
None. However I have noted a comment from the book “The Definitive Guide to Betting on Horses – Racing Post expert series” that in recent years the draw has played a part in this race when the stalls are placed in the middle of the track and therefore a high draw has been of vital importance.
Analysis
Selection: Dubawi (1pt win), Oratorio (1pt each-way)
This time last year anyone who I had not bored already would have heard me sing the praises of Haafhd (who oblige at odds of 11/2). Back then everything seemed so easy however I did not keep records in those days so today’s accounts will form the basis of future history.
I seemed to recall basing my selection of Haafhd on form from two key races. The Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket raced on the previous autumn and the Craven Stakes meeting held in early April. In addition the other stat to note was that the winner comes from the head of the market (first 6 in the betting).
Therefore the short-listed horses are Rob Roy, Democratic Deficit, Ice Man (Craven Stakes), Oratorio (Dewhurst), Dubawi, and Footstepsinthesand.
If I start with the latter horses in the shortlist, I have vowed this season to follow runners from the Godolphin stable and therefore I have already backed Dubawi to win. With superior speed and handicap ratings he is the one to beat. The only nagging doubt is that the vibes from the stable indicate that the Derby was his ultimate aim however; with the absence of Shamardal I suspect that the Godolphin boys seized the opportunity to land this prize.
But what happens if the hype surrounding Dubawi is false? In reviewing the pace and the draw placing it seems that the main dangers are all drawn high.
Based on jockey selection Footstepsinthesand (drawn 17) seems to be the first string from the O'Brien camp. Lightly raced in Ireland, he has only beaten moderate company and on ratings he is far behind what I believe to be the main danger to Dubawi, Oratorio (drawn 15).
A 2L second behind the best horse in training; Shamardal (Dewhurst) is no mean feat and with proven ability in group company, other people like me have cotton-on to the fact that 14/1 was far to big a price to let go for a place position.
As for the rest, I have ignored their chances based on lack of class, speed, experience, ability and more importantly ratings.
Labels: Principle Races
posted by Slipperytoad @ 4/30/2005 10:56:00 am
2 comments
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2 Comments:
Dubawi was 5th @ 6/4
Oratorio was 4th @ 8/1
Normally I would oppose the favourite in a bookie-sponsored race but this was the 2000 Guineas. Surely this was a race that could be relied upon to produce a result up to pre-race expectations? Well here is a note for next year. Only one winning favourite in the history of this race and this race was sponsored by UltimatePoker.com.
… … Nuff said.
Last year it was One Cool Cat that failed and the O’Brian stable was sent packing. This year the poor performance of Dubawi will be debated within the Godolphin stable. Both horses had one thing in common. They were both the pre-race talking horses that were hyped by the racing media. Another point to note in next years race.
So given my pre-race comments regarding the Derby, if Dubawi is entered and the ground is not too firm then I might place a hefty Anti-Post bet in the week leading up to the race.
I haven’t given up on the Godolphin stable and I feel that they will be determined as ever to make amends in future group races. Another note for next year is that after relocating from Dubai, it takes a number of weeks for the stable to start firing.
Racing Post Comments
[Future Reference] Note comments on Dubawi in respect to a Derby entry
The big field that the race invariably attracts these days, but plenty who appeared merely to be chancing their luck, encouraged perhaps by the lack of proven stars, with only two of the top 12 colts in the International Classification having made it to post. No fewer than eight runners might legitimately have been described beforehand as no hopers on paper, yet two of them were placed and another two finished in the first 11, all of whom finished within five lengths of the winner. A result therefore that takes some fathoming, though the unusually fast conditions make for an acceptable excuse for some of the bigger guns who failed to fire. They all came up the centre until the last furlong or so, when two came close to the stands' rail.
FOOTSTEPSINTHESAND was one of only two unbeaten colts in the line-up, but this was a big step up from the Group 3 he won at two and while connections were sure he would enjoy the conditions, his juvenile wins had both been in the mud. To be fair, while the form overall looks highly questionable by Classic standards, he was thoroughly convincing and clearly the best horse in the race. Having raced keenly, fairly prominent towards the outside, he took it up from the Clive Brittain pair Kandidate and Tony James over a furlong and a half from home and stayed on strongly up the hill. He is now vying for favouritism with Motivator for the Derby, and there is enough stamina in his pedigree to suggest he has a very good chance of staying. Although he was allowed to go to post ahead of the rest, it was merely a precaution prompted by his lack of experience.
Rebel Rebel progressed through the nursery ranks last year, and a winning reappearance in Kempton's Easter Stakes confirmed he was still on the upgrade. However, he had disappointed since at Newmarket, and it was almost impossible to envisage him running such a big race. There appeared no fluke about it, however, for he made ground steadily from towards the back of the field and kept on well. The Dante is his only big domestic entry at present, but connections are entitled to aim higher than that now.
Kandidate also excelled himself, upholding the Craven Stakes form, which Rob Roy and Iceman both let down. What made his performance all the more extraordinaryis that he reportedly got loose in the morning and he was clearly in an uncooperative mood when he was saddled, as he had to be reversed all the way down the chute into the parade ring with a towel over his head, his trainer pushing and coaxing him for all he was worth. In the race itself he was no problem, racing up there all of the way and running on, and connections are obviously tempted by the Derby now.
The winner's stablemate Oratorio had stronger juvenile form but had less scope for improvement and is reportedly very lazy at home, which presumably influenced Fallon's choice. He did very well to finish so close, for he was being ridden along among the backmarkers with only 3f to go, and he was still nearly last approaching the 2f mark. Switched towards the stands' side of the pack, he finished about as well as any, giving the strong impression he will be suited by further. He has similar entries to the winner, and so there are plenty of options.
While Dubawi's form did not entitle him to be quite such a short-priced favourite, it was impossible not to be disappointed with him here, even though it transpired he had been struck into. Unbeaten in three races at two, plus a private trial at Nad Al Sheba this spring, his preparation had reportedly gone as smoothly as could be and the trip was not expected to trouble him, although he is arguably bred to be more effective over the Derby's mile and a half. He took a nice grip, racing handily with the leaders nicely in his sights, but he was all over the place under pressure on the quick ground, going left as soon as Dettori picked up his whip, interfering with Tucker, and then veering more sharply left again towards the rail, taking Democratic Deficit with him. Connections will be desperate to win a Classic with him still, and the Derby will be hard to resist if he comes out of this all right. He was pushed out to a general 8-1 afterwards (though some have removed him from their lists) but anyone tempted to back him will now have to give even more consideration to how he will handle Epsom, especially if the ground is on the firm side again, as Dettori reported he was repeatedly changing his legs here.
The Craven winner Democratic Deficit had a luckless run,as he found himself in last place after being hampered at the start and having come round the field towards the stands' side to make his effort, he found himself carried towards the rail by Dubawi. All things considered, this was a decent effort.
Mister Genepi, another from the Craven, was never far away on the far side of the pack and finished a close-up seventh. He must have improved a fair bit since last year, when it took him seven starts to win his maiden. Tony James was left behind in the final furlong and a half but was far from disgraced.
Satchem, a stablemate of the favourite, stayed on after appearing to get outpaced, just shading Tucker, who was hampered so can be rated a bit better than the bare form, and David Junior, who was putting in good work in the closing stages and did exceptionally well considering his inexperience and the fact that he had the weakest form in the line-up.
There was a small gap to the weakening front-runner Party Boss, whose rapid risethrough the ranks had been exclusively on the all-weather, and then a much bigger one to the rest, among whom Iceman and Rob Roy were both bitterly disappointing. Neither of them enjoyed much luck in the Craven, and most expected them to beat Democratic Deficit this time, not to mention Kandidate and Mister Genepi. However, Iceman never really threatened to pick up after being held up towards the rear, and Rob Roy went out like a light and was virtually pulled up in last, having raced keenly in amore prominent position on the nearside of the pack, his rider subsequently reporting that he had lost his action. Rob Roy had stood out in the paddock - a really imposing colt, and as relaxed as any in the field - and he will surely bounce back from this. Iceman should too, although he is obviously a lot more exposed.
Capable Guest probably wasn't entitled to finish much closer, but Diktatorial was disappointing in view of the good reports of his preparation, merely chasing the pace for 5f orso and then dropping away. Solent was hard to fancy and finished further back, along with Pivotal Flame, for whom an excuse of sorts emerged when it was revealed he had lost a shoe, and Elliots World, who was slowly away and unable to assume his usual position at the head of affairs.
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