Wolverhampton - 3:20 ( 4 Apr 2005)
Combine Business With Pleasure At Dunstall Park Handicap Stakes Fillies & Mares (5) 5f20y
Course Description
Early observations (including my own) are that the new surface (with the exceptions of races over 5,6,7 furlongs) provides a level playing field with horses winning from a stride or two behind the leaders and from off the pace. In addition as the surface is still riding deep, horses must show ability to last the distance off a strong pace. Over shorter distances there seems to be a bias for low drawn horses.
Draw Bias over 5f
The percentage call here is stalls 1-4
Analysis
Selection: – No bet given this is a Monday. However if I were to bet, then it would be Stargem 1 pt win @ 5/1 or better, Sahara Silk .5 pt each-way @ 6/1 or better
With more time on my hands, I have entered the ‘Racing Forum’s’ NAPs competition
http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/cgi-bin/ikonboard/topic.cgi?forum=15&topic=7193
To start things off, I’ve gone for a race that seems workable given the draw bias at Wolverhampton. The only nagging doubt is that this is a Fillies and Mares race and fillies are notorious for unreliable form. However as this is the most valuable race of the day, the trainers will (hopefully) enter runners that can be relied upon.
Shortlist [Draw] (Racing Post SP) (Ratings SP)
Stargem [2], 11/2, 5/1
Wunderbra [1], 5/1, 11/2
Sahara Silk [3], 20/1, 6/1
Dolce Piccata[4], 11/1, 7/1
Bonne De Fleur [5], 7/1, 8/1
Meccas Mate[6], 12/1, 10/1
Of the runners drawn low,
Stargem: Unexposed in handicaps, and well rated on handicap and speed ratings. Winner last time out should not be inconvenienced by a 5 lbs rise in weights
Wunderbra: 189 days since last run, well handicapped and gets on well with Jockey, consistent but off current mark might come up short today.
Sahara Silk: Based on evidence of recent runs should not be competitive today, however 5 lbs lower that last winning mark, jockey and trainer in form. Seems to prefer fibresand but does act well on polytrack surface based on Lingfield runs. Because of draw and predicted SP of 20/1, worth an each-way punt.
Dolce Piccata: unknown quality, unproven on all-weather surface. Dropped in class so could potentially be too good for these runners. Well drawn.
Bonne De Fleur: The potential class act of the race but has not progressed since winning a filly’s listed race. One disappointing run at Wolverhampton last time out does not instil confidence that she will be competitive today from stall 5.
posted by Slipperytoad @ 4/04/2005 08:15:00 am
2 comments
News Feed
2 Comments:
The lesson here is that what may look good on paper the night before the race may not be such a good thing as the race approaches. All the more reason so hold all bets until shortly before the off.
In reviewing the recoding of the race, a poor break from the stalls hindered the chances of Stargem. At 20/1 Sahara Silk was that price for a reason so egg on my face there.
Yet again a horse relatively unexposed to the all-weather wins again. Post race comments on ATR suggest that the reason for the poor showing of Bonne De Fleur was that she was unsuited to 6 furlongs. However I bet to differ based on the following post race comments
“Made all, ran on strongly”
Not many horses make all at Wolverhampton and I suspect that today’s gamble (landed 7-1 into 5/1 at the off) was planned to perfection. The bookmakers at Dunstall also knew based on the comments ‘before’ the race on ATR so the word had got out. Clearly Bonne De Fleur has plenty of ability and yet again form was hidden from public gaze until the right moment.
I (fortunately) didn’t have a bet in the race but for me the circumstances of yesterday add weight to my decision not to bet on Mondays, Bank Holidays, in Sellers/Claimers and Banded Stakes. 99% of racing is ‘NOT’ corrupt however races on days such as these, the real information is not for public consumption therefore ‘touches’, ‘gambles’ are landed and short priced favourites are turned over on a regular basis
Racing Post Comments
A competitive fillies' handicap, featuring seven seasonal debutantes, which was run at a sound pace. The form appears sound and should work out.
BONNE DE FLEUR, last seen running below par on her seasonal bow over further at this venue in February, took full advantage of her favourable draw and got back to winning ways, landing a gamble in the process. She lost her way last season after taking a Listed event at Ripon in April, but had slipped back to a favourable mark as a result, and the manner of her success suggests she can win again over this trip despite an inevitable rise in the weights.
Mecca's Mate, having her first taste of the all-weather from 4lb out of the handicap, never looked a serious threat to the winner, but kept to her task gamely under pressure and made a pleasing return to action. She should improve for the outing, looks best over this trip and should soon be going one better.
Wunderbra, returning from a 189-day break, had her chance and paid late on for running freely through the early stages. She looks to have retained her ability and can be placed to strike again over this trip before too long.
Karminskey Park, another making her seasonal reappearance, stuck to her task under pressure and ran with credit from 7lb out of the handicap. She should find easier opportunities off this sort of mark.
Sierra Vista, returning from a 170-day break and making her all-weather debut, turned in a sound effort under top-weight. She is a pound lower than her last winning mark, and is entitled to improve for the outing, but is not easy to catch right.
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