Ayr 3:20 (16 Apr 2005)

Gr3 Gala Casinos Daily Record Scottish Grand National Handicap Steeple Chase (A) 4m1f

Course Description
A wide left-handed flat, oval, the course is suited to front-running galloping types and is a fair track. There is a run-in of 210 yards from the last fence.

Analysis
Selection: Philson Run, Another Rum (1pt win)

After the exploits at Newbury yesterday it’s back to business.

It’s the London marathon this weekend. If anyone suggested that I should compete in the London event and another marathon approx a week or two later, my response would be a cold stare as I assessed the mental state of the person making the suggestion.

Horses unfortunately don’t have this luxury and are at the mercy of the decisions taken by their trainers and owners. The analogy applied to this race suggests that any horse that competed in the Aintree National a week or so ago should be eliminated from consideration (Double Honour – blundered 15th fence, disputing 2nd when unseating rider at the 21st. Take The Stand – Unseated Rider 15th)

The Scottish version of the national is considered to be less of a test of stamina and thereby any horse weighted above “11st” cannot be easily dismissed. With “good” ground predicted horsed rated at the top of handicap should not be inconvenienced by todays distance

Only 2 winners in the last ten years have won this event from “out of the handicap” and today 16 runners fall into this category. The other interesting stats are the poor record of favourites in this event, the fact that indicates that horses that win this event are proven stayers and usually placed last time out. Novices have a good record in this event.

Horses short listed:

Another Rum – Irish raider and winner at Cheltenham over 4m1f last time out. Formbook noted the horse improved on step up to 4m1f & switch to good ground. Exposed around staying distances. Likes Ayr and has been targeted at this race all season. Unlikely but cannot dismiss.

Kerry lads – Second to Grey Abby in this event last year. Won at Ayr last time out in a fast time. Hails from the local trainer Lucinda Russell, this year her stable has targeted the Welsh and English versions of this event. Slight preference for soft ground and worthy of consideration.

Philson Run – Has suffered injury problem but back to form given recent win of a key race (midlands grand national) last time out. Therefore on form and stats should be the one to beat. Good chance.

Comply or Die & Cornish Rebel – I’ve lumped these horses together because their profiles are similar. Both hail from the top yards in the country with a good record in this event, both horses are the class acts in this event after recent, both are unproved over this distance and with that I have my doubts whether they have the stamina to last out the distance. Both are novices. Comply or Die is a 6yo and horses form this age ground have not won this race in the last ten years. Cornish Rebel is noted as one that has its “quirks”. Given the hype surrounding these horses, even the market cannot split these runners, and the fact that the odds on offer are poor; I shall take the bold step of ignoring the chances of both horses.