1000 Guineas (1 May 2005)
Gr1 Ultimatepoker Com 1000 Guineas Stakes Fillies (1) 1m
Course Description (Rowley Mile Course)
Right handed, the Rowley Mile course is reasonably flat in its early stages, but the ground dips 1½ furlongs before a gradual incline to the finish. The course suits galloping types and those that like to run up with the pace. Courage and stamina are also needed.
Draw Bias at 1m
None. In reviewing the 2000 Guineas race, the runners all tracked to the middle of the course. The eventually winner (Footstepsinthesand) was drawn 17 from 18 runners and placed horses drawn, 6, 4, 15. In conclusion the draw bias was not a factor and all runners had their chances with the best horse winning on the day.
Analysis
Selection: Maids Causeway (1pt win), Penkenna Princess (½ point each-way)
Again through lack of historical records, I cannot remember whom I backed in last years race so I will apply the following selection method.
Firstly ignore the form from the Nell Gwyn Stakes ran at Newmarket as informed opinion indicates that the form from this race is misleading for the 1000 Guineas. This eliminates the chances of Karens Caper. However the horse to take from that race was the third placed Favourita.
If the form from the Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury is a better guide, then we need to consider the chances of Maids Causeway and Penkenna Princess.
Penkenna Princess won the Fred Darling beating another runner entered in this race Echelon into third place. Last year she was beaten by Maids Causeway both of whom beat Favourita so on collateral form; Maids Causeway and Penkenna Princess are the horses to concentrate on.
However considering the chances of the unexposed horses Shanghai Lily is being stepped up to Group class for the first time. Why she missed her intended target of the group 2 Rockfel Stakes (won by Maids Causeway) is not clear. As 2nd market favourite at odds near 5/1 she comes under consideration, however with the poor run of Stoute’s other runner Rob Roy in the 2000 Guineas and doubts about here ability in group company, I am not confident in her chances.
On yesterdays 2000 Guineas performance I have ignored the chances of Godolphin runners Satin Kiss (3rd rated) and Fen Shui.
Cape Columbine was second behind, Karens Caper but as mentioned previously, I shall ignore the form from the Nell Gwyn with the exception of key horse Favourita.
As Maids Causeway tops ratings she has been backed accordingly (8/1 Victor Chandler). I don’t think Penkenna Princess will win but with solid form against other fillies, she is worth a small stake each-way punt at 20/1 (Littlewoods Bet Direct)
Labels: Principle Races
posted by Slipperytoad @ 5/01/2005 11:46:00 am
2 comments
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2 Comments:
Wow what a fantastic performance and well done to the Fallon, O´Brien and Coolmore operation. Yet again the Irish have shown the way in a big event and I see this trend continuing throughout the flat season. This stable should be watched throughout the season as I suspect that they have more coup’s planned.
My selection prime selection Maids Causeway ran a blinder in second place. Penkenna Princess’s trainer did warn punters in a pre-race interview that he felt that she had ran her race in the Craven meeting. It was a pity I have already placed my bet before the interview.
Racing Post Comments
There were plenty of missing Group 1 winners, notably Divine Proportions and Playful Act, as is often the case in this early-season classic and the overall form going into the race suggests this was not a great renewal, even though the Nell Gwyn and Fred Darling trials were well represented.
It still badly needed an impressive winner and it got one in Ballydoyle's representative VIRGINA WATERS.
The low numbers, headed by the Godolphin pair Satin Kiss and Fen Shui, who had both been boisterous to post, showed the initial pace was plenty fast enough for a mile race as they moved midtrack with the higher- drawn following as they ended bunching midtrack. Virginia Waters sat off the pace and was still last past halfway and sitting on the stands side wing of the field. She moved smoothly into contention but edging right as if feeling this fast ground after racing on an easier surface in Ireland. She still only needed one tap to clear away in the style of an improving filly. She is certainly bred to get ten furlongs and trainer Aidan O'Brien pointed to more stamina on her dam's side to give hope for Epsom. As the team's Kitty O'Shea is being boxed rested at present, her participation at Epsom must be highly doubtful and this filly looks a readymade replacement, although she will have to be supplemented. It makes for a messy picture, but Virginia Water was made favourite in absentia at around 3-1 which looks plenty short enough with stamina not guaranteed.
Maids Causeway was the pre-race talk as she was awash with sweat in the preliminaries (her trainer had already warned she is a free sweater) but she went to post like a lamb and ran a lionhearted race. She went into the race officially top-rated for her Group 2 Rockfel win and gives the form a solid look. She took time to get on top of Karen's Caper after joining issue two furlongs out as if she was a little ring rusty. She is heading to the Irish 1,000 Guineas.
Vista Bella delighted connections being one of the least experienced in the field. The Masaka winner was still very green and it was only hitting the rising ground inside the final furlong that she showed her true colours, stretching well having been all at sea running downhill after being switched to find daylight on the far rail. Considering she had been pushed along throughout, this was an eyecatching run suggesting a big Group 1 future. She would need supplementing for the Irish 1,000, where it would be no surprise if she reversed form with the runner-up.
Karen's Caper deserves credit as she was quite keen early on going with the fast pace but kept battling away until paying for it close home. She upheld the Nell Gwyn form with Cape Columbine, who also ran well on ground plenty fast enough. While Karen's Caper looks more a seven-furlong speedster, Cape Columbine got outpaced on this fast ground before edging closer again in the uphill run. This big strapping filly could get closer to all bar the winner with some juice in the ground.
Little went right for Saoire through the race and as such should be rated a shade better than the bare form. She got in a bumping match with Penkenna Princess early and then had to engineer her opening between rivals running downhill before staying on steadily on this seasonal reappearance. Another who has raced with cut in the ground, she looks sure to step up on the bare form with this run under her belt.
Pictavia showed her tail-end run last season to be all wrong and kept plugging away after showing pace on the far rail wing.
Bahia Breeze caught the eye again, having run well enough in the Nell Gwyn. She was badly outpaced at halfway and looking a candidate for last. She was switched between rivals through the pack and stayed on as well as anything without landing a blow. Her breeding does not suggest it but she looks to need further on this showing, although she has also shown a bit of cut helps her cause.
The remainder of the field looked to have stamina queries in this fast-run race as nothing was finishing and the gaps started to open up back through the field.
Echelon, stuck wide stands side along with the winner, shaped more like a sprinter as she made a move into the final three furlongs before flattening out.
Fen Shui, who raced to post and was keen throughout, gave herself no chance and as such was not disgraced but it more sums up what the others achieved or failed to do.
Golden Legacy showed a shade more than the bare form as she was outpaced midrace before making a run that petered out uphill in the final furlong, suggesting a drop back to sprinting will help her cause.
Joint Aspiration did not get home in this hothouse but Fred Darling winner Penkenna Princess, who had strong form, was most disappointing along with Shanghai Lily, not the first Stoute filly to disappoint this weekend.
Favourita, who went to post early, was keen out of the stalls and went with the frantic pace before being shuffled about and looking ready to drop away before battling on past beaten rivals. Her rider reported she got a bump and lost her action.
Market Trend did not look happy on the ground and dropped away quickly
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