Chester - 2:30 (4 May 2005)
Totesport Chester Cup Heritage Handicap (2) 2m2f147y
Course Description
An extremely sharp, left handed course, only 1 mile round: this is a front runner's track where all the racing is done on the turn. The track does not give large galloping types a chance to get into their long strides. Indeed such animals often become unbalanced or run wide round Chester’s sharp left handed bends. Therefore this is a course for specialists
Draw Bias
Reviewing the winners of the last 7 winners of the Chester Cup their draw position have been 4,2,7,5,4,13,9 so a low’ish draw is required at this distance.
Analysis
Selection: Dr Sharp (1pt win) Cold Turkey (½ point each-way)
I love Chester. Chester is a goldmine for punters who just concentrate on low drawn runners and this track will be seeing plenty of money from the slippery toad betting bank during the course of the flat season.
To be successful at Chester we need to look for a horse that likes a sharp turning track, can break quickly from the stalls (especially in sprints); a horse that likes to run up with the pace or front run. I have also read that the services of a jockey who can get his mount to put its near fore forward and go the shortest way round are equivalent to a 7lb pull in the weights.
However in respect to this event, informed opinion indicates that this race does not require an abundance of stamina to win; the key factor is an ability to act on a sharp track.
Horses proven on sharp tracks are Cold Turkey, Big Moment, Dr Sharp, Distant Prospect, Larkwing, and High Point.
Big Moment was eliminated from consideration given his jockey (J Murtagh) poor record at Chester. High Point was eliminated given his poor recent form and record of his trainer at Chester.
Larkwing has form at Chester and likes to race prominently based on pace analysis. He is stepping up in trip today. His trainer has a fine record at Chester so I must assume that he feels this horse will stay. However on stats his Jockey does not inspire me with any confidence.
Distant Prospect ran poorly last time out and seems to have gone off the boil.
Cold Turkey is a recent winner of the key race (Queens Prize - Kempton) and proven on the sharp all-weather tracks of Wolverhampton and Lingfield. However drawn 13, a hold up horse, market odds of 20/1 (in the last 7 years the biggest winner of the Chester Cup has been 16/1) and that fact that Daryl Holland is not on my favoured list of Jockeys at the moment (but he is experienced at Chester), I don’t think Cold Turkey will win but should be considered to for place position
Which leaves Dr Sharp drawn in poll position (1). Top on speed and my ratings he seems the one that they all have to beat. The boys in the Racing post seem to have written of his chances based on his recent run at Doncaster where he was said to have obtained a soft lead to win. But this race is a different matter. He has won at Chester, likes to race up with the pace (he is a natural front runner), a thorough stayer and loves good to soft ground conditions. I should get a run for my money today.
Onto the dark horses Swift Sailor and Coconut Beach.
Firstly, Coconut Beach from the in form O’Brien/Fallon combination. Relatively unexposed and based on the statistics his chances are slim. Sired by Sadler's Well, the record of his offspring at Chester is poor but drawn in stall 6 and ridden by “the man of the moment” he chances cannot be dismissed lightly. Fortunately punters have driven all remnants of value from the price so the decision has been taken out of my hands. No bet. However I can’t help feeling that the stable is planning another coup today and I have to resist the temptation to lump along with everyone else.
Swift Sailor is another unexposed type. The Anti-post leader until the late entry of Coconut Beach, he is still relatively young and my feeling he is one for the future.
posted by Slipperytoad @ 5/04/2005 08:02:00 am
1 comments
News Feed
1 Comments:
Dr Sharp finished 5th @ odds of 5/1
Cold Turkey finished 12th @ odds of 14/1
Note to self - stop backing long priced horses each-way in the hope that they will act 'savers'. They wont!
In next years race look for horses with previous form in this race and also horses that can break quickly from the stalls to obtain a good race position. Also look for horses that have tactical speed.
Racing Post Comments
A cracking renewal on paper of this valuable contest, with several progressive stayers taking on in-form established handicappers with proven course form, but it was run at only a moderate pace, so that there were a few hard-luck stories and it was unquestionably an advantage to race prominently - it was very difficult to come from behind.
So ANAK PEKAN had an edge in racing up with the pace from the off but this was still a fine effort, leading 1f out and holding on despite edging left. His second success in this race proves he is ideally suited by this type of track and also that he could well still be on the upgrade at the age of five - all was clearly not well with him when he seemed to be put in his place in Pattern company last autumn and hewas defying a 13lb higher mark than in this race in 2004.
Swift Sailor allayed fears that inexperience might catch him out on only his fourth appearance and is clearly a very promising stayer. Sensibly ridden prominently and dodging the hurly-burly, he led 2f out to 1f out, switched right and kept on again. He ought to win a long-distance handicap.
The race was not run to suit Contact Dancer, who won the Cesarewitch over a very different course at Newmarket last autumn, and he was being pushed along 6f out, but he kept on well after chasing the pace throughout and this effort augurs very well for his return to a more galloping venue.
Larkwing was open to considerable improvement on this step up in trip and did little to contradict the impression that he has big staying handicap in him as he fared best of those coming from behind in a race not run to suit those waited with. He also did not get a clear run over 2f out and was running on at the finish.
Coconut Beach lost his place over 3f out as the pace quickened but rallied over 1f out and kept on. This was not at all a bad effort from an inexperienced horse and he is likely to improve upon it in a more strongly run event.
Land 'N Stars would also have benefited from a greater test such as the Ascot Stakes might provide, judged on the way he was keeping on, while King Revo did well to finish so close considering how far off the pace he had to come from - he stayed on despite edging left and is another who might benefit from the step up in trip in the Ascot Stakes.
By contrast Balyan seemed not to get home and may benefit from a slightly shorter trip. He actually travelled well for a long way and shaped better than his finishing position. He switched right 4f out then made headway 3f out but found no extra in the final 1f and was eased. This was only his fourth run and he is another with considerable potential for improvement.
The race was not run to suit Big Moment while Dr Sharp ran well for a fairway but could not dominate as he had when winning first time out.
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