Chester - 3:00 (5 May 2005)
Bank of Scotland Handicap Stakes (2) 5f16y
Course Description
An extremely sharp, left handed track, only 1 mile round: this is a front runner's track where all the racing is done on the turn. The track does not give large galloping types a chance to get into their long strides. Indeed such animals often become unbalanced or run wide round Chester’s sharp left handed bends. Therefore this is a course for specialists
Draw Bias
Informed opinion suggests that anything drawn lower than stall 4 is the place to be. The historical stats indicate that this is not the case (7, 8, 11, 1, 4, 5, 5). This is a race for 3 year-old early in the season and some horses are returning from long absences and previous races in 2yo company. My guess is relative experience/inexperience is a factor that decides the outcome of this race.
Analysis
Selection: Westbrook Blue (1pt win), Bold Marc (1pt win)
I will play the percentages and side against the market leader Beckermet. This is a risky decision given that this horse loves Chester and was 4th in a listed race at Lingfield (Sharp track, turf) after a 222 day absence. Therefore on paper Beckermet has retained his ability as a 3yo and historically stall 5 is the place to be.
But … This race has only seen 1 winning favourite in 7 years. In addition, this is a handicap and the stats are poor for horses such as Beckermet in these types of events. There is only one down side with this strategy? What are the alternatives?
Nova Tour drawn 1, is a recent claiming stakes winner and so is outclassed in this company. Bond City is returning from an absence of 189 days and his trainer has a poor first time out record. Layed Back Rockey is also coming back from along layoff and is bottom rated which leaves Westbrook Blue.
Drawn in stall 4, he has a recent win and some experience at Chester (placed 6th from draw 6th). What attracted my attention to this horse is that this season he has performed well against older horses. Therefore he should perform well today against horses of his own age group.
I shall also side with the second rated horse Bold Marc drawn in stall 6. 2nd behind Westbrook Blue after a 159 day absence, his form suggest that he has improved as a 3yo.
posted by Slipperytoad @ 5/05/2005 10:00:00 am
1 comments
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1 Comments:
Westbrook Blue was 1st @ odds of 15/2
Bold Marc 2nd @ odds of 5/1
A good start for the new fluid approach of stats, facts, form book and intuition
If punting was this easy then I sure it would become boring. For the moment I bask in my glow of success. The main thing to note is that I could have come up trumps on the dual forecast (Ex £62.30; CSF £42.88) Wont get carried away yet and I’ll my betting records determine when I can bring this bet into my punting armoury
Racing Post Comments
They went a good pace here and those that had come from off the pace fared best with WESTBROOK BLUE confirming he is progressing with a career best performance.
He had it to do from 7lb out of the handicap but there was no fluke about his victory as he was produced with his winning run entering the final furlong and ran on strongly for a comprehensive success. He is likely to go up considerably for this win and is one to be on if his shrewd handler turns him out again before being reassessed.
Bold Marc had finished a length behind the winner on his reappearance at Thirsk last month and was 8lb better which shows how much the winner has advanced. He kept on well in the closing stages and gave the impression he will do better when returned tosix furlongs.
Bond City was having his first race since last October but didn't really take advantage of his good draw. He was another keeping on in eyecatching finish at the close and will improve for the outing.
Beckermet had a battle for the lead which he had won on entering the straight but he found that effort taking its toll in the final furlong. He ran well enough but a faster surface would have been more to his advantage and he can find a race over course and distance in the height of summer.
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