Warts and All (14th July 2005)

It’s been a while since I conducted a mini review, a lot has happened since the last one.

Firstly, hackers I hate em!

It seems that one or two people have taken a liking to my web site in respect to decimating the guest book with porn, innuendo and spam. It took me a while to eliminate their attacks but the issue was related to security holes in the guestbook software. These have now been resolved.

In parallel to this activity, I have tweaked parts of my strategy and reviewed race previews and results thus far.

One disturbing aspect of my betting is that I have been making a convincing case for two selections in each race. My logic is flawed, as they both can’t win, so one of my bets is completely wasted! This is worrying given that my betting bank is rapidly depleting as my strike rate currently is low.

A case can be made that my selection method is also flawed, but if this true I can at lease reduce the rate of losses by taking corrective action in respect to my staking. In parallel I can monitor the selection method as the data will not be skewed by two selections per race.

So, I have decided to “punt” one selection per race and for added spice, I will also increase my staking £10 per point.

The rational here is to ensure that every bet makes a difference as advocated by Mark Cotton (100 Hints for Better Betting). In addition, this one action should develop a mode of behaviour that focuses my mind, methods or/and mode of behaviour to guard against the consequences of poor or rushed selections. Poor strike rate = depleting betting bank! The flip side is that when I do win, I win BIG!

Finally selectivity. When updating my records it was clear to me that I have been messing in too many low-grade races. A simple remedy here is to limit selection to turf races classified as 4 (ratings range 66-85) or above and leave the low grade stuff to the betting shop fodder. All Weather races are excluded from this rule as I think I have discovered a workable edge, but more on this in future updates.