Newmarket - 3:10 (15 Oct 2005)
3:10 - Emirates Airline Champion Stakes (Group 1)
Course Description (Rowley Mile course)
All races from 5-10f are run on the straight track which has an uphill finish.
Courage and stamina are needed. Races over 12f and upwards are run right handed and the course is stiff and galloping. This suits horses that like to run up with the pace.
The Rowley Mile is also better characterized by stalls position than distance. When the stalls were on the far side and the ground was fast, high numbers - or more pertinently, horses racing hard against the far rail - tended to have an advantage, sometimes a significant one. When the stalls are on the stands side, traditionally a low draw has proved a big advantage.
Trends
The key statistics is that only 1 winner has scored from a double digit draw. Key stalls are stalls 1-5 winning 8 out of 10 races (when stalls on stands side). Fillies have an excellent record in this race winning 13 from 24 when a member fairer sex has taken part in this race. Given this statistic fillies should be the focus of the selection process.
With only 2 winning favourites in the last ten years, 80% winners placed in the first two last time out and average winning SP at around 5/1 for the winner, the focus of attention should be on form horses just behind the market leader. Such horses should be proven at Group1 level and also proven over 10 furlongs. With an average age of 3.60 the younger generation are the horses of focus in the selection process.
Analysis
Oratorio arrives from a successful but tough season and represents poor value at current odds. If he wins Alkaased he would be the first five year old to win in eight years so at the prices my two against the field are Alexander Goldrun (drawn 3) and Pinson (drawn 6) both ½ point win.
Fillies has a great record in this race and if she has not been adversely effected by her race in the Prix De L'opera Casino Barriere D'enghien, Alexander Goldrun should be there at the finish. A leap of faith is taken with Pinson, but he seems to be on a progressive profile after winning the Group 2 Prix Guillaume D'ornano for 3 year olds. Lightly raced this season the age statistics are on his side.
posted by Slipperytoad @ 10/14/2005 05:01:00 pm
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Alexander Goldrun was placed 8th @ 8/1
Pinson was placed 10th @ 10/1
The only comment of note is that the trainer of David Junior had targeted this race for a long time per comments below.
11 Sep 2005 Goodwood – “It’s the Champion Stakes now. They didn’t go fast enough for him when he was beaten at Haydock last time, and they didn’t really go fast enough again here. Jamie [Spencer] says he’ll make up into a really nice four-year-old.” - Jane Allison, trainer's representative
Trainers target certain races in their stable plans; sometimes this information is a tip in itself.
Racing Post Comments
A strong renewal numerically, and an international one in its make-up, with four challengers from France, which last supplied the winner in 1994, and two from Ireland. However, only four were winners at this level , and there were rather too many runnerswhose limitations have frequently been exposed or who had no real pretensions to winning in this class.
DAVID JUNIOR had finished down the field in the 2,000 Guineas and the Sussex Stakes when tried at this level, and while he had shown better form since upped to this trip it was still hard to see him figuring here. His victory provided the race's biggest shock since 1973, but there was no apparent fluke about it. After Echo Of Light had been ignored and allowed to bowl along in a long lead, David Junior came from towards the back of the pack on the outside and got there surprisingly easily. In front approaching the furlong marker, he stormed up the hill and was always holding on. While some of his main opponents underperformed, he was a worthy winner on the day. He might go to Hong Kong and looks set to be back in training next year.
Pride is much improved this year and her second to Bago at this trip and a subsequent convincing defeat of Alkaased gave her a good chance, and she had run into traffic in the Arc. She travelled well and came from well back too, but while the winner got first run on her to some extent, he looked to be maintaining his advantage in the last few strides. She deserves a Group 1 win, but time is running out. She, too, could go to Hong Kong, with connections reasoning that she will be better off at ten furlongs again rather than in the 12-furlong Japan Cup.
Maraahel had been disappointing in a Group 3 since his good effort in the Juddmonte International, but the ability was there to be involved again if the headgear worked. He was well placed in the main group, travelling nicely as usual, and he led briefly approaching the furlong marker, but the first two were too strong for him. He is another who could go to Hong Kong, and he will merit respect again.
Oratorio was heavily backed and held a decent position on the rail, but he had to be switched around weakening horses when losing his position coming down the hill, and while he was running on up the hill, he was never going to get there. This isn't his track, although Aidan O'Brien had revealed beforehand that the colt's blood was not quite right.
Alkaased had not run over this trip and found it on the sharp side. He ran all right in the circumstances and just got the best of a three-way photo for fifth, although Rakti would have beaten him with any sort of run. Rakti was confirmed a runner only when connections satisfied themselves the ground was not too soft, but a change of tactics backfired badly. He did really well to finish where he did considering the way the race was run, because he fought hard for his head in the early stages when the pace wasn't strong and then barely saw any daylight. Even when he was picking up in the final furlong his troubles weren't over as he got checked again. Successful in this race in 2003, he has not been seen to full advantage since slaughtering a sub-standard field in the Lockinge, but he would still be the one to beat in Hong Kong on his best formif given one more chance before he is retired.
Chic was trying a new trip very late in the day in a bid for an elusive first Group 1 success. One couldn't say she didn't stay, as she was keeping on reasonably well at the finish, and the truth is that apart from in the Celebration Mile, she has generally been below form this year.
Alexander Goldrun has had a tough schedule lately, and she was well below form here, with her effort flattening out in the final furlong. Layman had a good position on the rail but he didn't seem to get home over this longer trip. There was a long gap back to Pinson, who had made rapid progress since making his debut only in March and was bidding for a five-timer. He was up in grade again and was found out in the last two furlongs after racing prominently towards the head of the pack. He was entitled to run better. So, too, was his compatriot Prospect Park. He was fresher than most and looked to have plenty going for him, but he never got into a challenging position. [GD]
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