Newmarket - 3:45 (15 Oct 2005)
Totesport Cesarewitch Heritage Handicap (2) 2m2f
Course Description- (rowley mile)
All races from 5-10f are run on the straight track which has an uphill finish. Courage and stamina are needed. Races over 12f and upwards are run right handed and the course is stiff and galloping. This course suits horses that like to run up with the pace.
Race Trends
With an average SP of 13/1 and no winning favourites in 10 years the historical statistics suggest the winner should be
· in the top 8 in the betting forecast
· a proven stayer over 2 miles
· drawn high as these numbers tend to dominate.
· weighted around 8st 2lbs
· aged 6 or above
· ran with the last month (National Hunt runners are excluded)
· placed last time out
· Horse that like to be held up off the pace
· Ran in the Northumberland Plate Ascot and Goodwood Stakes
Analysis
Now the stall position are known, most of the fancied runners are poorly drawn. Short-listed runners are Afrad, Land N Stars, Fortune Island, Penny Pictures and Quedex
Well weighted and drawn, Afrad is the worthy market leader. A winner of the similar event at Goodwood, he clearly appreciated the step up in distance and rain softened conditions on that day. Lightly raced and open to more improvement, has all the hall marks of being the first favourite to win this race in years. However at the current market price of around 5/1 (and falling) he presents no value.
Quedex was 5th in this race last year from 5lb out of the handicap. Lightly raced this season it looks like this race has been the main target of the trainer. Potential each-way possibility from 1lb out of the handicap this time around.
With 2 winners, 2 placed runners and depending on which bookmaker you fancy, 2 runners filling 5th place position, recent history suggest that runners from the Martin Pipe yard command respect. Penny Pictures was hampered into 12th in the Ascot Stakes and was a well backed 10th in a similar event at Newmarket last time out. However preference is for Fortune Island who has beaten Penny Pictures and was a 3 length 4th behind Afrad at Goodwood last time out. At 33/1 he presents a sporting each-way selection (½ point each-way)
Historically Land N Stars is on the wrong side of the age and weight statistics however his position in the betting forecast (positions 2-8 have won this race in the last ten years), a recent win in a listed event over 2 miles at Newmarket last time and draw position suggest that he presents a solid selection at odds of 10/1 (1 point win)
Sergeant Cecil has had a great season, unfortunately the handicapper is now back the driver seat, but he is expected to obtain at least a place position. If I were playing the Trifecta he would factor in my perm. {comments edited 16th Oct}
posted by Slipperytoad @ 10/14/2005 03:58:00 pm
1 comments
News Feed
1 Comments:
Land ‘n Stars was placed 6th @ 9/1
Fortune Island was placed 21st @ 18/1
The historical trends stacked up well and should be followed again in next year’s race.
Racing Post Comments
A particularly rough race, with the big field bunching badly into the final four furlongs, although it did not look to impact much on the result with the possible exception of Vinando.
SERGEANT CECIL completed a unique treble of the NorthumberlandPlate, Ebor and this big handicap. He has proved himself a class act over staying trip this season and got into this race 5lb well-in, having been reassessed after his fine second to Millenary in the Doncaster Cup. He was given an ice-cool ride and benefited from staying close to the inside rail and taking the shortest way home, unlike some of his rivals. King Revo looked to have gone beyond recall as Sergeant Cecil waited for a gap, but he picked up strongly and won a shade cleverly.
Having improved more than a stone this year in the toughest races, and possibly been outsmarted by Millenary in top form, he looks a leading contender for Cup honours, especially if Westerner is retired.
King Revo nearly overcame the coffin draw in one, cutting through the middle of the bunching pack and going fully three lengths clear. He was not stopping in relation to the other placed horses but had no answer to a classy winner. He is a pound lower in future but will pay for this fine effort and is of more interest over hurdles.
Inchnadamph tracked the winner through near the inside rail but did not have the pace when needed, although he was staying on best in the final furlong, disproving the excuse that good to soft ground had not suited him last time.
Vinando was denied any run through near the inside rail into the final four furlongs and had to be switched right around the field to come widest midtrack. He still got into contention, only to become involved in a barging match with Escayola, which helped neither of them. All this took its toll in the final furlong and he deserves rating better than the bare form.
Elusive Dream had no excuses after getting a good run near the inside rail, but Land 'N Stars and Mirjan had troubledruns when threatening to get involved. The former was sitting handy enough into the final half-mile but got hampered before staying on steadily.
Escayola had every chance when getting into the bumping match and his best form is on a sounder surface.
The 2001 winner Distant Prospect kept on late, along with Quedex. Lets Roll was another to be badly hampered. He sat well off the pace after crossing over sharply from his unpromising draw and still looked to have plenty to give when nearly put over the rail.
Odiham was reported by his rider not to have stayed, as he looked a leading contender into the final three furlongs before weakening and being eased to accentuate his beating.
Fortune Island was another to stop very quickly, having been in the first half dozen into the Dip.
Afrad was most disappointing, having been perfectly placed behind the front-runners near the inside rail but when asked to bring his abundant stamina into play he flinched and weakened.
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