Doncaster - 3:35 (5th Nov 2005)
1m 4f - totesport November Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) 3yo+
Course Description
A left handed flat galloping track, ideal for the big, long striding horse, and the powerful galloper. On the round course, the track turns to the left in a most accommodating, gently sweeping fashion. Therefore, low numbers have some advantage in races staged from 8 to 12 furlong.
Analysis
A race I successfully punted in last year
http://www.slipperytoad.co.uk/2004/11/doncaster-255-6-nov-2004.html
and I shall follow the same formula today. Stall position in (brackets)
(1) Red Lancer – Dropping sown weights
(2) Grooms Affection – 2lbs out of the handicap, 435 days absence
(3) Ryan’s Future – 3lbs out of the handicap
(4) Group Captain - 3yo; Form book notes suggest a big run expected today
(5) Akarem – Irish raider, form unknown?
(6) Jeepstar – Better over faster ground
(7) Nessen Dorma – 10lbs higher than last win
(8) Wingman – 3yo; 3lbs out of the handicap behind group captain last time out. Form book indicates favourable handicap mark.
(9) Ebtikaar – Useful handicapper, unsuited to going, market leader (poor stats)
(10) Estepona – 1lb out of the handicap, improver?
Based on ratings and preference for the going conditions 3yo’s Group Captain and Wingman are the selections (1 point win)
posted by Slipperytoad @ 11/05/2005 10:35:00 am
1 comments
News Feed
1 Comments:
An example where the draw stats were not a major factor in the race age is (3 year olds) and therefore this age range should be the focus of attention next year
Racing Post Comments
What had looked to be a tight handicap beforehand, was turned into a one-horse procession by COME ON JONNY, whose bold all-the-way tactics coupled with his love of testing ground worked the oracle to devastating effect. Overcoming his wide draw within a furlong, he soon had the benefit of the inside rail and, plainly enjoying himself out in front, he stretched further and further clear inside the final two furlongs. He is an improved horse this season and, given that he is a late foal, further improvement may be forthcoming next year.
The ex-Irish Akarem, having his first run for Karl Burke, was never able to pose a threat to the winner, but came out best of the rest, just ahead of Estepona, who ran well on his first outing for three months; he will be an interesting horse over hurdles.
Wingman turned the tables on Group Captain, following their recent encounter over this course and distance, but neither could play a hand in the final 2f, especially the latter, who was well held.
The remainder were strung out with Lets Roll unable to get involved and Ebtikaar being in trouble a long way from home. Sirce found this too tough off her revised mark and Gold Gun, who lacked the experience of his rivals, ran poorly.
*Wellington Hall was reported to have a breathing problem. [T.O'R]
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