Cheltenham - 4:20 (26th Oct 2005)
Jewson Handicap Hurdle Final (Class B) (4yo+)
Course Description
This course has extremely stiff fences. Left handed, there is a testing uphill run-in of 237 yards on the new course. “Front-runners have a poor record”. Horses must be able to jump up and down hit and MUST stay every yard of the trip. Previous form at Cheltenham is worthy of note
Race Trends
In the last 6 years all bar one race has been won by the favourite. 4,5 and 6 year olds have the best records and preference should be given to 5 year-olds. All recent winners were 1st or 2nd last time out and had run within the last 28 days
Analysis
Selecting the “unnamed favourite” is the call but I decided to delve deeper into the race given this race might not be as straight forward.
The conditions of this race are as follows
“For 4yo+ which, prior to October 21st, have either started in a series qualifier in 2005, or were eliminated from a qualifier having declared to run at the overnight declaration stage”
So the focus of attention was to identify runners who had performed well in the Jewson qualifying events leading up to the final. Short-listed are Earth Man, Fandani, and Portavadie
All short-listed horses are coming off long breaks with the exception of Earth Man who won a pipe opener on Sunday in a charity race.
Currently top weight, Portavadie is drifting badly in the market so no stable confidence there however this may change near the off. He might we worth an each-way punt at the prices available.
Earth Man has the most positives. Based on comments by the trainer this race has been part of the plan for Earth Man. Also Paul Nicholls has won this race before. In one of the qualifying rounds, Natal trained by Paul convincingly beat Portavadie and Fandani. However he has swerved this race in preference for a novice race at the Paddy Power Meeting. I must assume that Mr Nicholls feels Earth Man is an adequate substitute. Ridden by A P McCoy who is substituting for the injured Ruby Walsh the only negative I can find are stamina concerns.
The second favourite Fandani is the value selection gievn that he is from an age group which has the best record in this race and has already beaten Earth Man.
In a tricky race, the approach will be to monitor the prices on Betfair and bet the market leader (1 point = £5) at or near the off. This strategy would have produced a 9/2 winning favourite yesterday.
posted by Slipperytoad @ 10/26/2005 09:33:00 am
1 comments
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1 Comments:
Only five had any real chance from the second last in the final of this handicap hurdle, where a lot of the previous form had been achieved on top of the ground and the conditions here went against them, so the bare form may be slightly misleading.
ITSMYBOY had been all at sea around the tight contours of Plumpton last time and was better suited by this more galloping circuit. Ideally, he needs further than this trip, but everything was in his favour on this occasion. He will stay over hurdles this term before trying fences.
Theocritus's placing from out of the handicap also lets the form down, especially as he had not cut much ice last time in these conditions at Chepstow.
Fandani was fairly closely matched with favourite Earth Man on their previous meeting and he was not disgraced because connections are adamant he wants better ground and this was his first outing since May.
Portavadie just about had every chance, but he had finished in front of Fandani in May.
Reem Two was the only one to make any inroads from the second last but she has an exposed look about her.
Anticipating wants better ground.
Earth Man proved a major flop as he had won a warm-up race easily only days earlier. He was beaten at the top of the hill and this was obviously not his true running.
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