Cheltenham - (25th Oct 2005)
Course Description
This course has extremely stiff fences. Left handed, there is a testing uphill run-in of 237 yards on the new course. “Front-runners have a poor record”. Horses must be able to jump up and down hit and MUST stay every yard of the trip. Previous form at Cheltenham is worthy of note
2.45 Cheltenham Co Uk Novices' Steeple Chase (C ) 2m
Race Trends
Overall 5, 6, 7yo’s have the best record in this race.
Analysis
With a 0/0/3 win/place/run record for 4yo’s Le Volfoni is not one to get excited about. Relatively inexperienced (racing so far has been limited to 4yo only races) he is a lay at predicted SP of 7/4 however I shall focus my attention on finding the winner.
Up for consideration are One Cornetto, Bold Bishop, Flying Sprit, In Contrast.
Cheltenham is definitely one of those courses for course specialists. In Contrast has the best course form but with a PU/UR/5 record over fences and a 520 day absence to overcome, he is another to oppose.
One Cornnetto is an interesting runner and arrives in form after an 8 lengths 2nd last time out. The same can be said about Flying sprit who was also 2nd to improver Tigers Lair (who went to come 4th in a 0-145 class B Handicap chase). However, on hurdles form and current ratings they are both well behind Bold Bishop.
Bold Bishop is 8 year-old and this age group have a relatively modest record in this race. However, he stays 2m4f but ideally suited by 2m. 2nd last time out and dropped back to his preferred distance, two fourths at Cheltenham (one in the champion bumper) and trainer and jockey form at Cheltenham make Bold Bishop the selection (1 point win = £5).
3.20 Thwaites Smooth Beer Hurdle Race Handicap (B ) 2m5f
Race Trends
Very unusual for a handicap but the fate of favourites reads: 212011111 so we need only concentrate on the first two in the market as well as 4 and 7 year olds. The last five winners of this race all won their last outing.
Analysis
I’ve been caught out on these types of races before; I choose the morning line favourite but by the time the race starts the market moves against my selection to make some other nag the jolly. So to be safe given the historical stats I shall select “unnamed favourite” 1 point win = £5 only if we have a clear market leader at the off. Joint favourites = No BET.
The following are short-listed The Market Man, Tomina, Mirjan, Migwell, Shalako
My preference though is for Shalako.
posted by Slipperytoad @ 10/25/2005 10:27:00 am
2 comments
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2 Comments:
2.45 Cheltenham Co Uk Novices' Steeple Chase (C) 2m
Bold Bishop was 2nd @ odds of 11/4
Racing Post Comments
There have been better renewals of this novice chase but it did include two former Scottish Champion Hurdle winners, an Imperial Cup runner-up and a highly-rated French import. However, none of them won, the spoils instead going to FLYING SPIRIT, whowith the best will in the world had not looked a Cheltenham horse beforehand and was giving away weight to the leading fancies here.
Even so, he won and in grand fashion too, for he made all and came up the hill with real gusto. He has age on his sideand is probably better than we thought, although he will still surely struggle if asked to take on more elevated company.
Pure and simple, Bold Bishop looked soft. He had two second-place efforts over fences to his name and now he has another one,after he appeared to decide not to win. Having cruised through the contest he flew the last and landed with lots of momentum but then failed to find much for McCoy's urgings, running around under pressure and looking distinctly limp when the going got tough. He is talented but is also one about whom to have reservations.
Le Volfoni ran a fine race in France's premier four-year-old chase back in May and so was entitled to respect on his British debut. Not surprisingly for a French recruit, he made mistakes at the first two fences but then performed pleasingly, and still had a big chance when his landing gear failed him at the notorious second last. He survived the blunder but he was always facing an uphill task from that point. A step up to two anda half miles might not come amiss and he remains a horse of considerable interest.
One Cornetto was not good enough to defy a penalty, while it is to be hoped that the nasty blunder In Contrast made at the final fence does not leave any mentalscars. Once a very useful hurdler, he is not the force of old, but he was going okay until getting tired and outpaced on the run down the hill. His big days are behind him but he should win at the appropriate level.
Milligan looks to have been revitalised by the change of stables. He went enthusiastically towards the front and was in the process of acquitting himself well when crashing out two out. Providing he is fine after the tumble, he can build on this, even if time is not on his side.
3.20 Thwaites Smooth Beer Hurdle Race Handicap (B ) 2m5f
Two joint favourites in this race, The Market Man and Shalako. I backed Shalako, guess which one won?
A cracking handicap hurdle featured a big field, some in-form handicappers plus a few unexposed, potentially lightly-raced sorts. The latter description certainly applied to THE MARKET MAN, who delivered a smashing display to mark himself down as very much a horse to follow.
Bought out of New Zealand - where he was more than useful on the Flat - he won two out of his three British starts last term and appeared to be perfectly fairly handicapped, especially given the likelihood of improvement stepped up to two and a half miles. That improvement came, as the five-year-old was value for a good bit more than the winning margin; he looked to be idling in front having cruised from the word go. He will be hiked up a fair bit for this but deservedly so, and he would have a major say if coming back here for the two-mile-five-furlong handicap on the Sunday of the Open meeting.
Whenever he goes chasing, he should be followed with relish.
Fire Dragon was given a lovely quiet ride up the inner by TonyMcCoy, whose mount arrived there full of running after getting the fourth-last flight wrong. As a four-year-old, this may not be an easy season for him, but this augured well and erased the memory of his unfortunate mishap when slipping in the Free Hurdle.
Goblet Of Fire has run with pride here before and he did so again. Yet although Christian Williams did a fine job, the horse really excels for Ruby Walsh, who puts horses to sleep so beautifully, and he couldn't be discounted back at this venue in a similar race under Nicholls' number one. Additionally, if he goes chasing, as could well be the case, he will collect races as he's just the sort to enjoy tanking along against inferior opposition.
Keepthedreamalive, who at one stage had the profile of a potential star, has not gone on as once seemed likely, but he ran a lovely race here under a positive ride. He had put in a shocker earlier in the month but this form was in a different parish and suggests his winning days are not all behind him.
Shalako probably ran just as well as he had when second at Chepstow, especially as he made a bad mistake when the tempo was increasing three out. He deserves to win something worth winning.
Mirjan had not run over hurdles for 523 days going into this but he is not a lost cause in the genre as this was promising. That said, his steering went to pieces, which is hardly positive.
Neither McBain nor Penny Pictures were disgraced and neither was Flying Enterprise, although he did not finish as close as seemed likely at one stage.
Of the rest, Chicuelo showed little on his first start for a new yard, but Spectrometer continues to hint at having another pot within his grasp.
Likewise, Tacin, a horse of not inconsiderable natural ability, was noted travelling particularly smoothly for a long way, and his eventual finishing position owes much to mistakes at the two downhill flights and a considerate ride. He has had problems, but he should not be forgotten with this run locked away.
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