Southwell - 18 Oct 2005
Course Description
The All Weather fibresand surface is much slower than the polytrack used at Lingfield and Wolverhampton and places great demands on stamina. The course also favours horses that like to race prominently.
2:20 5f - betfredpoker.com Handicap (Class 5)
[*] Draw Trends – 5 Furlongs
Percentage wins - Stalls 1-7, horses drawn in 1, 3, and 6 win the majority of races.
[*] Analysis
Short listed horses are Clipper Hoy, One Great Idea, Tag Team, and The Leather Wedge.
Clipper Hoy returns after 342 day absence. Trainer has a poor ‘First Time Out’ record and on breeding is not suited to the fibresand surface.
Tag Team has all-weather form, but seems suited to claiming grades, polytrack and the one bend 5- furlong distance at Lingfield
The Leather Wedge likes to race prominently, is on a winning handicap mark and showed excellent form to come 7th in an 86-100 handicap from 13 lbs out of the weights. A drop in class today and a 1/4/11 win/place/run record at Southwell he is expected to run well (1 point win)
One Great Idea would have made his first appearance on the all-weather surface today. From a yard that dominates races at Southwell and the right breeding to act on the fibresand surface he may be a sprinter to follow this winter. Unfortunately he is a non-runner but goes into the notebook for future races.
3:20 6f - Rippon Homes Ltd Handicap (Class 5) 3yo+
[*] Draw Trends – 6- furlongs
Stalls 2,3,4,8,11,12,14 on win percentages dominate races over this distance
[*] Analysis
An open affair, shorted listed horses are Savile's Delight, Shifty Night, African Gift, Absent Friends, , Count Cougar, Misaro and The Best Yet.
The Best Yet has performed well on fibresand, has been dropped 4lbs but my feeling is this is not enough to make him competitive.
Misaro won last time out and broke the course record at Wolverhampton. Up 6lbs and up in class his chances are unlikely but cannot be easily dismissed.
Count Cougar goes up 10lbs and is on a new handicap high mark.
Absent Friends drops in class, has performed poorly on the polytrack surface but on breeding should act on the fibresand surface. Poor trainer and jockey form at this course put me off selection.
African Gift ran well last time out and is totally unexposed on the all-weather surface. On breeding he should act ok. Trainer/Jockey form positives but poor pace profile (preference for racing well off the pace) a major negative.
Shifty Night from a yard that performs well at this venue. A horse with a preference for this surface (4/3/14 win/place/run record at Southwell) even though he is up 7lbs today the handicapper may have given him a squeak of a chance on past performances at Southwell (½ point win)
The other selection is Saviles Delight. The 7lb drop in weight puts him well below a winning handicap mark. Breeding for all-weather surfaces is a slight concern but the price on offer is adequate compensation (½ point win)
posted by Slipperytoad @ 10/18/2005 10:35:00 am
2 comments
News Feed
2 Comments:
The Leather Wedge was 2nd at 3/1
Racing Post Comments
This did not take a lot of winning, but AFTER THE SHOW took it with a bit to spare on his first outing in almost a year and it will be disappointing if he does not go on from this. He has been gelded during his absence, and should be all the better for the operation.
The Leather Wedge blazed the trail as usual, but he does not find it easy to last home and his modest strike-rate makes him one to take on in these events.
Gilded Cove was knocked about at the start and was always playing catch-up from that point. He finished to good effect, but it was too late to trouble the principals.
Attorney, bidding for his tenth win of the year, is a better horse at 6f and could never get competitive on this occasion.
Shifty Night was 7th @ 22/1
Saviles Delight was 9th @ 14/1
Racing Post Comments
A fair handicap, run at a good clip.
RAMPAGE, a promising second at Windsor last week on her belated seasonal reappearance, took a long time to pick up here and it needed a very strong ride from Tony Culhane to get her up close home. She will be all the better for this first experience of the all-weather, and should improve again for a step up to 7f.
Misaro, who showed improved form in first-time blinkers on his debut for Ron Harris at Wolverhampton last week, had plenty of use made of him early to overcome the disadvantage of a high draw, and that possibly found him out on the run to the line. He is clearly in good heart right now.
Cerebus, never out of the frame in six previous starts here, ran another sound race, but she is a bit more exposed than some and is possibly in the grip of the handicapper at present.
Post a Comment
<< Home