Musselburgh - 4:10 (3rd Nov 2005)

2m - totepool Handicap (Class 4) 3yo+

Course Description
Right handed, oval track, 10 furlongs in circumference. An easy course, on the sharp side and front runners do well here: Over the 5 furlongs straight track, when the stalls are on the stands side, low numbers are best (especially on soft ground). High numbers are favoured when the stalls are on the far side: high numbers are best over the round 7/8f track. The course drains well and has a watering system so that the going is usually good and rarely extreme.

Race Trends
3 and 4 year-olds are the only age group to have won this race. The winner is a proven stayer or one that has improved when stepping up in trip and placed last time out.

Analysis
Have broken every rule in the book for the lucky last at Musselburgh but when analysing the historical stats for the 3:05 listed race, I uncovered some strong trends which diverted my attention to this race.

With 3 or 4yo’s dominating the winner’s enclosure over the years, the field can be dramatically reduced to the following runners. Spear Thistle, Aristi and Don’t Call Me Derrick.

I was initially very bullish about the chances of Don’t Call Me Derrick but he is now a non-runner. Aristi matches historical trends well after his recent win. However, he is taking a step up in class and based on form book comments the +5lb rise might be his undoing

“Chsd ldrs, forged ahd well ins fnl 1f & just prevailed in a driving fin: improving young stayer who relishes rain softened grnd: thorough stayer who battled v well here”

Which leaves Spear Thistle from the in form Gosden yard (1point win). Well backed but placed 5th from a poor draw in a recent Newmarket race, horses placed behind him have all gone on to run well in subsequent events. If he can settle early, this trip should not be a problem.