Beverley - 4:05 (7 May 2005)

Leisure Furnishings Sprint Handicap (4) 5f

Course Description
Right-handed oval course with a stiff uphill finish of 2½ furlongs. Due to the nature of the course, this track is not really suitable for the adoption of waiting tactics. Form Students should give the claims of course and distance winner’s particular consideration.

Draw Bias at 5f
High numbers dominate (top 6 six stalls) results over this distance and one of the strongest biases in the entire country.

Analysis

Selection: Wanchai Lad (1pt win), Dispol Katie (1pt win)

And following on from my comments on the draw bias the bookies are fully aware of this statistic and factor this into the prices of the horses drawn high. Let’s see if the ratings and logical analysis can weed out some value. The shortlist from those drawn in stalls 17-12.

Celtic Thunder, Local Poet, Dispol Katie, Domirati, Baron Rhodes, Wanchai Lad

The first thing I noted when analysing this race is that in terms of pace, all of the horses drawn high like to race prominently. Conventional wisdom suggest that these runners will try and outpace each other which will set things up for what the Americans call, a “closer” i.e. a late finishing horse can take advantage of the fact that horses with early pace often fatigue when competing against horses of the same type. The “closer” is the horse the can overtake tired horses in the final stages of the race. As the only “closer” drawn high, Baron Rhodes received an extra tick in the box on ratings.

An ability to break sharply and being able to judge the pace are also crucial factors for those drawn high.

On form

Celtic Thunder: is a C/D winner but that was over 2 years ago in a Maiden Auction stakes. On recent and overall form he has a poor chance

Local Poet: Another with poor recent form. In addition he is a colt running against fillies and Geldings and the stats don’t look for his chances

Dispol Katie: Indifferent form this year however in reviewing her overall form, she has not had condition to suit (5 furlongs with stiff finish). She is back on a winning handicap mark and ridden a well-respected apprentice jockey. The stable is in form too. Good chance.

Domirati: 145 absence. On overall form, he seems to creeping up the handicap without winning. Being ridden by an inexperienced claimer today so is eliminated from selection.

Baron Rhodes: Top rated of those drawn high. Right back to form on recent run (3rd) this filly is noted as one that is tough and genuine. However the stats indicate that the trainer has a relatively (against other trainers) poor record at Beverly and the stable is currently out of form. Baron Rhodes looks like the likely winner but with doubts about the stable, the current odds on offer are not enough to get me interested.

Wanchai Lad: Poor recent form but he (in the passed tense) has being recently gelded. Came 13th after course reappearance and ridden by apprentice on that day. A quick reappearance today after a seven-day rest a well-respected jockey rides today so some improvement is expected. Trainer has good record at Beverly. Worth considering?

Even through the high drawn is the percentage call, from time to time horses drawn low win at big prices and in 16+ runner handicaps, horses drawn low should be considered for each-way purposes. After much consideration nothing drawn lower than the short listed horses are worth a speculative punt.