Chester - 1:30 (6 May 2005)

Vcbet Handicap Stakes (2) 5f16y

Course Description
An extremely sharp, left handed track, only 1 mile round: this is a front runner's course where all the racing is done on the turn. The track does not give large galloping types a chance to get into their long strides. Indeed such animals often become unbalanced or run wide round Chester’s sharp left handed bends. Therefore this is a course for specialists

Draw Bias
Informed opinion suggests that anything drawn lower than stall 4 is the place to be. My observation from last year suggest that on day 3 of the Chester meeting, horses drawn away from the rail come into play. The historical stats indicate that this is the case with stalls 4, 1, 3, 8, 6, 6 and 4 winning this race in previous years. Unfortunately the race has been won by Chester specialist Damalis on three occasions from stalls 1, 8, 6 and therefore the draw stats may be skewed a little,

Analysis

Selection: Cape Royal (1pt win), The Lord (1pt Win)

As Chester is an extremely tight track ‘all’ of the racing (and action) occurs on the inside rail, as a consequence the ground gets chewed up in the first two days of racing. Therefore the Clerk of the course moves the rails outward (around 3 or 4 feet?) on the third day to bring fresh ground into play. My assumption is that this action alters the course characteristics and effect of the draw on the third day.

With no winning favourites in last 7 years you would think you could dismiss the changes of Fonthill Road. However the Fahey/Hanagan combination has to be respected given the trainers record at this track. But … (that word again) on pace analysis, Fonthill Road is a hold up horse and prefers to come from off the pace to win his races.

Drawn in stall 1 he will have to adopt forcing tactics in order to maintain a prominent position on the inside rail or rally to pass horses in the final two furlongs. Fonthill Road’s savour may be Native Title drawn in stall 2. A horse that has a preference of 6 furlongs, he likes to force the pace and was 4th in this race last year. He might be the one to give Fonthill Road the required tow. But with all said and done, my real problem with Fonthill Road is that he is unproven on tight or very sharp tracks and it is for this reason I will look elsewhere.

Back to the subject of pace. Is this a factor? Yes it is given the profile of the last seven winners

Chased leaders, made all, dwelt, tracked leader, behind leader, settled in touch, made all.

In this race there is very little and only Native Title(2), The Lord(7), and Cape Royal (9) are the ones that like to race prominently and it is the latter two horses that will form my duo against the field given the ratings prices available

Both nominated horses are being ridden by jockeys (Daly, Holland) that have demonstrated ability to get their mounts into a winning position at Chester. (Again, I won’t let my personal feelings get in the way of statistics and ratings in selecting a horse ridden by Mr Holland)

The Lord has winning form at Chester and was behind Fonthill Road and ahead of Native Title in a recent race at Beverly. Cape Royal goes well on easy ground, likes a sharp track and has proven himself capable of wining a race of Chester.

What I really like about this horse (apart from the Jockey) is his pace profile and speed ratings. As mentioned earlier there is little pace in the key stall positions so if he gets away quickly to obtain a prominent position, I suspect that he’ll have too much speed in the final two furlongs.