Newbury - (16 Jul 2005)
Course Description
A left handed over whose circumference extends for almost 1 mile 7 furlongs. Its long, wide straights, since they feature occasional rather mild undulations, are appreciated by long striding gallopers. If the strong suit of such animals is stamina they find Newbury greatly to their liking since its gentle bends can be taken at a good gallop.
Analysis
2:50 1m - ladbrokes.com Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) 3yo+
Effect of the Draw
On the straight course the draw has little advantage,
I have written previously about the dangers of punting in bookmaker sponsored events however one thing is clear, based on statistics the favourite offers poor value so we can instantly strike one off the shortlist (Ace of Hearts).
Pace analysis indicates that Newbury is a track where front runners should be opposed and the focus of attention should be on horses that like to chase the leaders. Scratch Norton and Mukafeh. Now comes the difficult bit.
On statistics the winner is most like to come from the top eight in the market. Ace of Hearts is already eliminated by virtue of his favouritism. Moonlight Man had conditions to suit last time out at Chepstow and historically form there does not transfer too well to other courses. The Stoute horse Santa Fe; difficult to draw conclusions on recent form however, on breeding and jockey booking make this horse look very interesting. Ladbrokes have posted their opinion their early prices which indicate that he will not be a factor, but his chances should not be dismissed.
Tarraman is unexposed in handicap company and no clues from breeding analysis therefore an unknown quantity. Another Bottle is still running off a career high handicap mark. The same can be said of Uhoomagoo. Dark Charm, steps up in class, stable Jockey rides elsewhere.
Fine Silver; recent form and going suggest one to avoid. However he is running off the same handicap mark when winning over course and distance in April, takes a drop in class today and could be the one if retuning to form. On ratings, another who comes into contention is Spanish Don who is well handicapped and if coming back to form, one that could land the spoils at big prices.
Going to break my own rules in respect to selection, but in a competitive race and given the prices, the vote goes to Spanish Don and Fine Silver (½ point win)
3:25 5f 34yds - Weatherbys Super Sprint (Class 2) 2yo
Effect of the Draw
Based on pervious renewals of this race, a high draw is slightly preferred. However with a number of pace horses running today we should be give preference for horses that like to race just off the pace.
The historical stats are clear, for the winner we need to focus our attention on the top 6 in the betting forecast
Titus Alone. Has class, speed, history and form ratings on his side. The horse that is named after the fear of the number 13 likes to dominate up front but might not get things his own way today. Hot – No way Bath form does not translate elsewhere. Last year my fingers were burnt by selecting Annatalia after watching her scoot up at Bath, but she failed so deliver at Newbury.
Gamble In Gold by the admission of his trainer is only 90% fit after injury. Always Hopeful is too high in the weights. The Snatcher is taking a step up in class
It Titus Alone for me (1pt win)
posted by Slipperytoad @ 7/16/2005 09:24:00 am
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2 Comments:
2:50 1m - ladbrokes.com Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) 3yo+
Fine Silver was withdrawn
Spanish Don was 8th @ 12/1
Tom Segal (Racing Post) does it again.
He sets the standard in respect to tipping big priced winners (that’s four Saturdays in a row he has tipped the winner of the big race).
In terms of my own selections Fine Silver was withdrawn, I guess on the account of the ground so a black against e as I had noted this as a concern in my pre race analysis. Spanish Don is still out of form based on post race comments.
Racing Post Comments
An ultra-competitive top mile handicap in which Norton towed along the majority of the field midtrack throughout but, while they looked to enjoy a couple of lengths advantage midrace over the trio led by Moonlight Man under the stands rail, the finish concerned Moonlight Man and ANOTHER BOTTLE, who had tracked him going exceptionally well throughout.
Another Bottle had not looked particularly well handicapped, edging up the ratings without winning similar big handicaps but, back to the mile over which he gave Helm Bank a race, he left behind his ten-furlong form. He had the pace to travel smoothly just behind the pace and while not picking up instantly when asked he lengthened well enough. He looks a Cambridgeshire type.
Moonlight Man remains in top form, but the combination of being back up to a mile and a 4lb rise for a more modest handicap win recently just found him out. He holds the Totesport Mile (formerly Golden Mile) entry at Goodwood and must be a leading contender there, althoughmuch will depend on a good draw to suit his running style.
Mukafeh, who ran in the Jersey at Royal Ascot last year, led home the midtrack bunch under his welterweight and is another with the Goodwood race entry. He travelled well widest out there and kept on for pressure through the final two furlongs.
Nashaab remains an enigma as he was stoked up to take any interest from his stall one draw and was again strongly driven and going nowhere passing halfway. As is his style he picked up the bit into the final two furlongs as others weakened to give him confidence and nothing finished better. He remains his own worst enemy but it will be no surprise when one day he mows them all down.
Calcutta, another stuck out widest midtrack, travelled much better on this sounder surface than looser ground at Newmarket last time and showed he remains in good heart despite edging down the rating.
Norton may be in the veteran stage but he can show rivals a clean pair of heels and he only cried enough in the final 100yds on a sweltering afternoon. The handicapper is showing him no mercy not surprisingly and he remains difficult to place to advantage.
Ace Of Hearts ran a bit closer to the pace on this easier track than at Sandown but could not pick up under pressure into the final two furlongs and was unable to confirm form with the runner-up.
Last year's Cambridgeshire winner Spanish Don showed much more here than in his last two runs. He stayed on stoutly without threatening the principals to suggest he is refinding his form.
Seneschal, the other to race stands side, momentarily went with the winner before edging left and getting outpaced before plugging on. His best form is with some cut in the ground and when gettingthat should be borne in mind.
The three-year-old Capable Guest, another to have raced in Group class, stayed on steadily to suggest he might need further these days.
3:25 5f 34yds - Weatherbys Super Sprint (Class 2) 2yo
Titus Alone was 8th @ 2/1
“My god A 100/1 winner, how could anyone pick that one!” Well yours truly would have if he paid attention to the historical record of fillies in this race. With 11 wins in 14 renewals (including this one) the fairer sex have a strong hold on this race due to their weight allowance. You can guess what type of horses I’ll be backing next year … …
The note in respect to Ascot Festival winners who disappoint next time out is interesting, as I have observed this phenomenon in Cheltenham Festival winners. A potential laying system we thinks given that the horses that win festivals go off at short odds next time out. Hmmm mmm
Racing Post Comments
One of those inexplicable results where the form book goes out of the window as LADY LIVIUS, although giving his trainer a sixth win in the race, was least fancied of the five he ran in the race, still having an entry in a Windsor maiden on Monday which was an alternative to this big race.
Only five stuck with the winner, who emulated stablemate If Paradise in winning from stall one, on the far side as Triskaidekaphobia blazed away midtrack to lead overall with Windsor Castle winner Titus Alone struggling to keep up midrace in his wake.
The bulk of the field raced towards the stands side, although Nigella was the only one to hug the stands' rail after breaking smartly. There was a general migration left in the final furlong on the fast ground which saw the field finish spread out but Lady Livius came home in splendid isolation finishing the race off strongly.
Lady Livius, a half-sister to the stable's top young sprinter Galeota and its useful Vermillian, had done nothing to suggest such a win. She again hung left when asked to quicken but had the rail to stop her and she strode out well in the final 100 yards to win convincingly. She did not get six in soft last time after a low-key debut (a stable trend this season) and with allthe dam's three foals having won and proved useful, this was probably not such a big shock as the 100-1 tag suggests and she can uphold the form.
Nigella, a Lowther entry, remains progressive and connections felt this all-weather maiden winner was undone by having to do her own donkey work. Certainly she kept on when challenged to be a clear second without sighting the winner the width of the course away.
Both Brandywell Boy and The Snatcher were doing their best work at the finish, flashing home midtrack without threatening to win. The former is another maiden while The Snatcher is a dual winner of decent contests which adds to the contrary signals over the strength of the form with four lengths covering the first 12 home in this dash.
Always Hopeful showed good all-round speed on the stands' side wing and in giving weight away to his main rivals emerges with plenty of credit to suggest further success.
Gamble In Gold and Prettilini were noted putting in strong workwhen the race was all over, especially the former who weaved through nearer the stands' rail, suggesting she will be suited by another furlong.
In contrast Hot was always dicing with the leaders but the impression was that being away from either rail did not help the cause but even allowing for that Titus Alone was disappointing, adding to the list of Royal Ascot at York winners who have not shone since.
Secret Night stayed on from a poor position at halfway down the middle without threatening, while the likes of Danjet, Triskaidekaphobia, Azygous and Amber Glory weakened after showing good speed.
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