Paddy Power Gold Cup - Cheltenham (12 Nov 2005)
3:20: 2m 4f - Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase (A Handicap) (Class A) Grade 3 5yo+
Course Description
This course has extremely stiff fences. Left handed, there is a testing uphill run-in of 237 yards on the new course. Horses must stay every yard of the trip and previous form at Cheltenham is worthy of note
Race Trends (positives)
Trained by Martin Pipe
A previous Class A winner
Aged fix or six
Proven over further than 2m4f
The winner of the Studd Challenge Cup
Carrying 11st or more
Proven form at Cheltenham
finished 1st or 2nd last time out
Analysis
As discussed on the Betfair forum anyone that takes a short price about a house with form figures of 113/FPP- wants their head examining. I agree. Our Vic could bolt up by a number of lengths tomorrow however, as I found to my cost recently, value is everything in this game and even I can figure our that 7/2 is not value.
So what else takes my fancy? Monkerhostin has got to be up there. In my fledgling career I have determined that Cheltenham is a specialist track and Monkerhostin has the best form of the lot. The form book notes him as a versatile/genuine performer and although his age is on the wrong side of the historical stats he should prove hard to beat.
The other horse with outstanding form at Cheltenham is Therealbandit. I um’d and ah’d about him during analysis, however if there are doubts about Our Vic’s jumping ability then I’d rather take a chance at 12/1 on the so called second string from a yard that has dominated this race in recent years.
What finalised my choice in Therealbandit were the following comments in the racing post after his run in April in the Mira Showers Silver Trophy Chase.
“Therealbandit has had seven runs this season and five have been stinkers or not much better. The ability is still there, as shown by his defeat of Royal Auclair here in December, but in a handicap hurdle at the Open meeting, the King George, the Gold Cup, the Melling Chase and now in this race, he has been way below his best. Fitted with first-time cheekpieces instead of the first-time visor he wore at Aintree, he travelled with none of the smooth fluency that used to run through his races, while his jumping was also not what it could be. At his best, he is within touching distance of top class, so it is to be hoped that a summer's break might re-ignite him".
Now is the time to find out.
Labels: Principle Races
posted by Slipperytoad @ 11/11/2005 08:12:00 pm
1 comments
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Oppose Martin Pipe at your peril at the Paddy Power meeting
Racing Post Comments
A strong renewal of this historic chase and Martin Pipe, whose incredible achievements are almost taken for granted these days, improved his incredible record in this ultra-competitive handicap to seven out of the last ten with the success of OUR VIC.
The race was delayed with worries about the low sun especially racing to the last but went off without incident, although it was noticeable that there was not such a rapid pace usually associated with this race.
Our Vic's jumping problems and neardeath experience here are well documented but on the other boot, he came into this race back off his Tripleprint mark so particularly well in with old rival Monkerhostin as well as others. Another reality check is that Redemption was far from beaten whencrumpling on landing over two out to extend a CV which has unlucky written through it.
Bookmakers not surprisingly slashed Our Vic's price for the Hennessy not only in light of last year's stable winner Celestial Gold going on to complete the double under the same 6lb penalty but also because this horse has strong form over three miles, having finished third in a SunAlliance behind Rule Supreme. His stable have Celestial Gold at the top of the handicap and Paddy Power could be knocked over for the 8-1which puts him behind King Harald and Trabolgan and is double the shrinking 4-1 put up by VCbet (from 12-1).
Redemption deserves mention second in as he looked assured of that position the way he travelled with menace outside Our Vic into the second-last but not for the first time he bowed out in frustrating circumstances. His future depends how the handicapper, who could raise him for the unfinished performance, reacts.
Monkerhostin certainly did not have Our Vic's measure when left to collect last year's Tripleprint yet he was 17lb worse off with him here so his gallant second under his 6lb penalty for his strong Haldon Gold Cup win reinforces the view that this eight-year-old is reaching his peak this season rising nine. This effort was the more meritorious as he was far from fluent over his fences after hitting the fifth hard. He again hit two out when closing under pressure but was still able to stay on past tired rivals up the run-in without threatening Our Vic. This Graded winner over hurdles is already another 3lb higher reassessed for Exeter and is getting into the difficult to place to advantage category but he looks the type to move up and grab higher Graded glory over fences.
Kandjar d'Allier went into the race with a progressive profile and rising mark to match and excelled himself on this seasonal return on ground that was drying out against him all the time. He crept round the inside saving ground throughout and fully maintained his upward curve and is one to follow when getting proper soft ground. He could head for the Rehearsal at Newcastle where he is more likely to get suitable ground rather than in the Hennessy at Newbury which is another possible.
Fondmort continued his love affair with the track and the 2003 winner of this prize turned in another never say die effort while remaining 4lb higher than his winning mark in this race. He has paid a heavy price for the Cheltenham double that year which has seen him winless since and he remains devilishly hard toplace to advantage.
Lord Sam left the impression he is on his way back. Slightly fresh and keen early up with the lead, he jumped much better than when last seen in the King George last year. His mark has eased and on this showing he can find a decent handicap chase off his current mark from this encouraging sighter.
Lacdoudal was another for whom the ground was drying out against him. He was badly outpaced from four out but he stayed on uphill when it was all over to suggest success soonerrather than later when having conditions in his favour.
Liberthine settled out the back and could never land a blow but she has come back on good terms with herself and should win more races, while Mariah Rollins again belted a fence hard (midrace this time knocking her back) and she disappointingly could not muster the pace at the business end.
Royaleety was another to blunder away his chances in the back straight but Forget The Past ran better than the bare form, being another with form on a much softer surface. He was still battling away up with the principals after the fourth-last and was allowed to coast from the home bend when held to accentuate his beating.
Brooklyn Breeze was another to blunder midrace and although he was fighting away in midfield, his winning chance had gone when he was hampered by Redemption's fall two out. (BF)
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