Wolverhampton - Placepot (9 Nov 2005)

Before punting heavily on the All Weather, I’m going sharpen my tools (draw, pace, form and speed ratings) using a placepot as I need ensure my data sources have not drifted since last winter.

1:20 5f 20yds - First Past The Post At Bet Direct Claiming Stakes (Class 6) 3yo+

The most difficult race on the card to start proceedings. Sir Sandrovitch, Red Sovereign, He´s A Rocket, Imperium, Almaty Express, Nisr and On The Trail make up a fairly long shortlist.

As this race is a non handicap, the modus operandi for claimers and sellers is to look at relative BHB ratings, for horses dropped into this class for the first time or horses that excel at this grade. Imperium meets this criterion but his trainer is noted for runners at this venue.

Highly rated Sir Sandrovitch is berthed in poll position and from a yard that likes a tilt at the betting ring now and again, market confidence would make him a selection for betting purposes.

Pace figures indicate that On The Trail will try and ‘make all’ from stall 5. A winner last time out in Banded class, a low BHB rating of 46 will mean that he’ll be the rabbit for all to chase.

At the other end of the scale Red Sovereign (BHB rated 67) should be in his wake from stall 3. Form book comments from his last race are puzzling

“Led briefly early & restrained, ran on ins fnl 1f”

However a professional jockey takes the ride today and he beat Sir Sandrovitch, Almaty Express and Blue Maeve in that race and is likely to be ahead again today.

Almaty Express will be popular due to “Fallon followers” but he is yet to prove himself outside 3yo only races.

From stall 4, He´s A Rocket has solid form at Wolverhampton but the rise to claiming grade from sellers is likely to be his undoing.

The dark horse is Nisr. Gay Kelleway is no mug when it comes to All Weather racing. This 8 yo is lightly raced relatively unexposed was claimed recently by Kay for a campaign on the sand. On form his preference is for 7 furlongs but he remains one to watch over the coming season.

Not a race for punting purposes, a low draw bias over this distance means that Sir Sandrovitch and Red Sovereign are the placepot selections.

1:50 5f 216yds - No 5p Rule 4's At Bet Direct Selling Stakes (Class 6) 2yo

A 2yo seller is not to everyone’s liking but the draw bias at 6 furlongs makes things a lot easier. Figaro Flyer, Lasting Love and Mr Rigsby are short listed.

The obvious choice on ratings is Figaro Flyer. However as I’m gunning for a large placepot dividend, doubts about his breeding on this surface, a short price (I bet many will perm him as the singleton in their placepots) and jockey record at Wolverhampton (9/19/79) I will oppose the jolly and select Lasting Love and Mr Rigsby.

What puzzles me is that the stable mate of Figaro Flyer is being ridden by Mr Fallon. Mr Rigsby already boasts a win at Wolverhampton (over 7 furlongs) and on breeding his dam is a sprint winner so a drop back in trip should not be a problem. Hmmmmmm

With the best early pace figures of those drawn low, Lasting Love on breeding and trainer record at Wolverhampton should make the frame.

2:20 5f 20yds - Weatherbys Bank Nursery (Div I) (Class 5) 2yo

The current Market leader (Don’t Tell Sue) was successfully backed by yours truly at Newbury earlier this year. She is all class but has a bad draw today and definitely one to take on (lay) but might squeeze into a place position.

Back over 5 furlongs none of those drawn low make any appeal based on ratings. In fact nothing takes the eye so I’ll single top-rated Whipper In for the placepot and hope for the best.

2:50 5f 20yds - Weatherbys Bank Nursery (Div II) (Class 5) 2yo

Back over 5 furlongs, the market leaders Amber Glory and Musical Romance are very appealing from advantageous draw positions

3:20 7f 32yds - betdirect.co.uk Maiden Stakes (Div I) (Class 5) 3yo

I hate 3yo races as it is difficult to asses their level of improvement from 2 year olds. 7 furlongs is a specialist distance and the draw bias at Wolverhampton suggests that draws 1-4, 6, 7, and 8 win the majority of races so I shall concentrate my attention on these stalls.

(1) The Rebound Kid – no course experience; until proven one to avoid
(2) Actuality - Trainer form at this venue suggests one to consider, lack of early pace is a concern
(3) Nazaaha - Sire a group 1 winner at 6f has indicated that 7f+ may suit. lack of early pace is a concern
(4) Resistance Heroine - Did not like the kick back on her one and only run on the all –weather (Southwell). Breeding suggest that polytrack should not be a problem. Trainer has excellent record at Wolverhampton
(6) Freshwinds - no course experience; until proven one to avoid
(7) Ernmoor – Only 1 run. Trainer has indicated in previous comments that stable will not be in form this side of Christmas
(8) Chicken Soup – Ran well last time out against elders but breeding and trainer form suggest a poor show today.

Actuality and Resistance Heroine are the placepot selections but not with any great confidence

3:50 7f 32yds - Weatherbys Insurance Handicap (Class 6) 3yo+

At last back to the handicaps and Sarraaf is a very confident selection with Craic Sa Ceili making up the placepot duo

Brave Chief will try and make all from stall 5 but he is much much much better on fibresand. In taking the lead he will tow along Sarraaf berthed in stall 5 who drops in class and weight (-9 lbs).

Course and distance winner Craic Sa Ceili is on a winning handicap mark and runs extremely well fresh so the 72 day course absence should not be an issue today

2x2x2x2x2x2 perm = £6.40 (64 lines @ 10p)