Wincanton Placepot - (5th Nov 2005)
Course Description
A right-handed galloping track with stiff/testing fences. Front runners often poach leads that are unassailable on the short run-in from the last fence.
1:05 2m - EBF toteplacepot "National Hunt" Novices' Hurdle (Qualifier) (Class C)
It’s hard to see passed the chances of Refinement however with favourites having a poor win record but good place record in this race, I’ll throw in Sea the Light into the placepot mix.
1:35 2m 5f - totepool awaybet Handicap Chase (Class D) 5yo+
Another poor race for favourite backers, however the top two in the market Black De Bessy and Tribal King appeal most during race analysis
2:10 2m 5f - totesport 0800 221 221 Rising Stars Novices' Chase (Class A) Grade 2 4yo+
With form book comment of
“apprec step up to 2m4.5f & won in fine style on chase debut & looks one to follow” Napolitain is the placepot selection and bet (1 point win)
2:40 2m 6f - £1Million totetentofollow Mares' Only Handicap Hurdle (Class C) 4yo+
An event for the girls and I’ll follow those that have proven themselves in this type of event. Penneyrose Bay and Early Start are the selections
3:15 3m 1f - Badger Ales Trophy (A Handicap Chase) (Class A) (Listed Race) 5yo+
Red Devil Robert will be all the rage, but for me he has yet to prove his credentials. Unlike Distant Thunder who beat Red Devil Robert by 21 lengths in the last years “Rising Stars Novices' Chase” and has also won a group 2 event. Takes a drop in class today (1 point win & placepot selection).
3:50 2m - totesport.com Elite Hurdle (Class A) (A Limited Handicap) Grade 2 4yo+
A tricky final leg. For me a break of 211 days will have rejuvenated Marcel after last years busy campaign. (1 point win & placepot selection). Sporazene will finalise the placepot selections.
1x2x2x2x1x2 = 16 lines @ 30p = £4.80
posted by Slipperytoad @ 11/05/2005 10:41:00 am
1 comments
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1 Comments:
I think there's two useful things to bear in mind when placepotting.
1. Most people have an upper-limit of 64 lines. This affects the decisions they make. If you have the bank to be able to play above 64 lines you should gain some sort of edge over these other players.
2. Considering 'value'. You have to overcome a whopping 27% deduction to beat the placepot. That's some ask. Luckily there is a lot of mug money in the pool, plus a lot of non-value lines. Non-value lines will include all 64 lines combining first and second favourites; plus lines revolving around favoured jockeys/trainers; plus lines based around obvious bankers. Taking the time (and it does take time) to exclude these pointless lines from your placepot will free up some funds to either increase stakes on the remaining lines, or to play extra lines that are more value-laden.
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