Cheltenham Placepot - (11 Nov 2005)

Course Description

This course has extremely stiff fences. Left handed, there is a testing uphill run-in of 237 yards on the new course. Horses must stay every yard of the trip and previous form at Cheltenham is worthy of note

Analysis
Many thanks to Gary Twynam from http://www.escorialracing.co.uk/ who has taken some time to mentor me in my quest to become a professional punter. One area where he has helped immensely is placepot selection strategy. Using this race I'll see if I've absorbed his teachings.

For now, the aim will be to obtain value for all lines which ultimately means avoiding the obvious choices that everyone else has in their perms. In future placepots I'll focus on multiple placetpot perms but today's selection are based on statistical trends and form book analysis.

1:15 2m - Anglo Irish Bank Novices' Hurdle (Class A) (Registered As The Sharp Novices' Hurdle) Grade 2 4yo+

Statistical trends indicate the winner is usually from positions 2-4 in the betting. Poor race for placed favourites. Rimsky is the selection given his proven form at this grade

1:50 3m - paddypower.com Amateur Riders' Handicap

In some respects we need to rip apart the form book as this is an amateur event so the focus should be on horseman(women)ship. Statistically, the favourite has a good place record but poor win record so Getitwhileyoucan makes the perm however, Lord Who and Fasgo are both being ridden by jockeys who are experienced around this track so their selection will cover any mishaps and hopefully provide multiple winning placepot lines.

2:25 2m - Beards Jewellers Cup (A Handicap Chase)

Again history indicates that the favourite is a poor selection, 7yo's have the best record. 5, 9 and 10 year olds have moderate records.

They wont be messing about over this distance so speed and stamina will be required in abundance on good to soft going at Cheltenham.

Full Irish is the selection as my analysis indicates that he is the only runner that revels in testing conditions and has no stamina doubts. I have also throw on Made In Japan based on Gary's tissue and confidence.

3:00 3m 7f - Sporting Index Chase (A Cross Country Chase) (Class B) 5yo+

A race for the older horses and one that has seen the demise of a few well backed favourites. Horses must stay every yard of the trip and I've selected one-paced plodders Historg and Wildfield Rufo. I also think that the trainer of Spot The Difference is priming Good Step to continue her good record in this race (as indicated by trainer comments earlier this year).

3:35 3m - Steel Plate And Sections Novices' Chase (Class B) 5yo+
A good race for favourite backers and after last weeks jumping display, Celtic Son gets the call.

4:10 2m 5f - Abacus Global Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Class E) 4yo+

A race for the needy and the greedy. Recent big priced winners and conditional jockeys equals placepot buster. Spent hour's trying to find an angle into this race and eventually gave up. It is this race which put me off playing multiple placepots as a multitude of combinations were required to cover all angles.

Double Dizzy and Micheals Dream are the selections.

36 lines @ 20p line = £7.20 is bit more than my staking plan, however the aim is a balance between value perms and potential rewards