Southwell - 2:30 (6 Dec 2005)

5f - Bet Direct Freephone 0800 211 222 Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) 3yo+

Course Description
The All Weather fibresand surface is much slower than the polytrack used at Lingfield and Wolverhampton and places great demands on stamina. Form on fibresand is often not reproduced on polytrack and vice versa. Generally soft ground turf performers do better on fibresand. The course also favours horses that like to race prominently

Analysis
This is a race where early pace and draw positions might prove to be the deciding factor.

On the 4 furlongs run-in at Southwell, there is a strip of ground down the middle which is much faster than other parts. Horses that can grab this ‘golden’ lane usually go on to score.

Most jockeys have figured this out and during analysis every 5 furlong race thus far has developed into a race where horses race in an ‘arrow head’ formation, horses at the point of the arrow make the early pace and the winner usually comes from the tip of the arrow or slightly off the pace 2 furlongs out from the finishing line.

As quoted in a book on the subject, at Southwell horses with poor early pace might as well stay home. On pace analysis who are these horses? Rydal and Fyodor the current market leader. I haven’t fully defined my laying process yet, however I’d say that Fyodor will find it difficult to win today even though his stable is in great form at the moment.

In respect to the draw, given this is a straight course for me the location of the early pace is the factor instead of the actual stall position. Although recently, horses drawn wide are having a hard time getting to the mix as they don’t get any pace assistance from other horses (usually down the middle) and are forced to blaze a trail themselves. Also life becomes doubly difficult on the extremes of the arrow head for those drawn high and low who have have to suffer the dreaded kick back if they want to get into contention with the leaders.

Another aspect of this race is that a number of horses who re-oppose after a similar 86-100 Class 2 handicap event on the 16/11/05. The draw position and beaten lengths are shown below

3rd [1] Polish Emperor
6th [3] Frascati - 2 lengths
7th [10] Pickled - nk
[11] Dancing Mystery - length
[8] The Lord - ½ length

For me the winner will be from this shortlist given that Pawan and 6lbs out of the handicap and up in class. Tag Team is also 12lbs out of the handicap.

The Lord is well handicapped but has poor form at Southwell and needs to improve somewhat to alter the place positions above.

Polish Emperor did extremely well from stall 1 to come 3rd, however today is drawn in stall 9 today life agian will very difficult as he has gone up 2lbs. In addition his trainer form at Southwell is poor and trainer comments indicate a preference for Wolverhampton.

Frascati’s pace profile suggests that he will make the early running but off a mark of 82 he is technically out of the handicap in this 86-100 event and so takes a rise in grade today. He may not have the class to hold off challenges in the latter stages of the race and his trainers win, placed, run record at this track does not inspire confidence (6/19/143) however, he is well drawn close to that golden highway down the middle of the course so he is more of a value punt at current market odds than a handicap selection.

Top rated Piccled is horse who loves it around this course and is well handicapped. However it’s been a while since he's showed the kind of form required to be competitive at this level, a place position at best from outside draw of stall 1.

Most of the runners remain on the same handicap mark with the exception of Dancing Mystery who drops 2lbs today after a slow start last time out. He has good early pace, is on a winning handicap mark and given that he is drawn next to the predicted pace setters in stall 5 & 6 if can start better today he has the potenial to notch up another win on his favoured course and distance.