Wolverhampton - 9:30 (19 Nov 2005)

Live Football Cashbacks At Bet Direct Handicap Stakes (5) 5f216y

Course Description
My own observations are that the polytrack surface (with the exceptions of races over 5,6,7 furlongs) provides a level playing field with horses winning from a stride or two behind the leaders and from off the pace. Over shorter distances there seems to be a bias for low drawn horses. When the surface is riding deep, horses must be able to stay every yard of the trip off a strong pace.

Draw Trends Over 6f
In races of 13 runners, stalls 1-6 won 41 of 60 races 68%.. Stalls 1-4 win the majority of races over this distance. Stall 1 and 2 are very profitable.

Analysis
A very very competitive race in the lucky last at Wolverhampton. Normally I would leave this type of race alone , but with strong draw trends and some tasty early prices on offer lets go for a touch. Short listed horses in draw order

1. Cherokee Nation – On a winning handicap mark and runs extremely well on this surface. These points offset the fact that this horse is ridden by my least favourite jockey.

2. Polar Force – Progressive profile and highly rated but I’m put off by iffy performances on polytrack.

3. Gilded Cove – did me a favour last week in winning his last race, but now raised to a career high mark. I suspect the handicapper is back in control

4. Lawmaker – Handicapper in control and need to release grip before he’ll be competitive

Cherokee Nation is the selection (1 point win) Polar Force being the main danger.