Lingfield - 3:45 (19 Nov 2005)
Betdirect On Channel 4 Text Page 613 Handicap Stakes (2 ) 7f
Course Description
A left handed, turning track, 10f round, with a run in of less than 2f. The all weather surface is polytrack. Note that the 5f track is not straight but turns left throughout the first 3f. Despite the left turning nature of the track, the expected low draw bias is not borne out by the statistics.
Draw Trends Over 7f
In races of 9 to 12 runners, the Top 6 stalls won 19 of 25 races 76%. Poor race for favourites
Analysis
Given the strong draw statistics the short list is limited to horses drawn in the top 6 stalls. Here are my notes for the race.
6. Party Boss – Listed class winner earlier this year as 3yo. Highly regarded but promised but expectations not realised during the supper, could bounce back but stable out of form
7. Marshman – On winning mark and professional jockey takes over from apprentice today. Trainer has a very low strike rate at this course
8. Kings Caprice – Behind Redspell last time out and dropped to a competitive handicap mark. Stable has no wins at this venue
9. Claret and Amber – unexposed on this surface One to consider from stable that likes a punt now and again so watch the market
10. Russian Symphony – Running over preferred distance today. Poor form at Lingfield and on a career high handicap mark. Market leader so oppose.
11 Chateau Nicol – 1lbs out of the Handicap
12. Red Spell – Ridden by least favourite jockey. Has preference for 1mile but ran well from poorish draw to come second last time out. Top rated.
Selection: Red Spell (1 point win)
posted by Slipperytoad @ 11/19/2005 11:17:00 am
1 comments
News Feed
1 Comments:
Red Spell was 1st at odds of 8/1
Racing Post Comments
RED SPELL, who caught a real tartar on his last appearance here, made handsome amends for that and set the track record into the bargain. In another race when it paid to race close to the pace he was in the leading bunch throughout, collared the runner-up entering the final furlong and stayed on strongly.
King's Caprice took command two furlongs from home and very soon had most of his rivals on the stretch. He could not, though, get rid of the winner and had to give best in the closing stages.This was, nonetheless, a decent effort and a repeat could see him in the number one spot.
Lygeton Lad is vastly better on this surface than he is on grass and put some dismal turf runs behind him on this comeback after four months away. He was staying on well in the closing stages and success in the near future would come as no surprise.
Psychiatrist ran well but is too high in the handicap, while Party Boss is paying for his good form at the start of the year and in view of his vast weight was anything but disgraced. If he is to win, though, he has got to have some respite from the handicapper.
Marshman stayed on but was never dangerous, while Russian Symphony, though never far away, had no more to give in the last furlong-and-a-half.
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