Hexham - 1:50 (16 Nov 2005)
4m - Peter Fletcher Associates Northumberland National Handicap Chase (Class C) 5yo+
Course Description
Left handed circuit of 1m 4f with undulations and a stiff uphill finish. The premium is definitely on stamina rather than speed. The subsoil is clay and the going tends to extremes becoming very hard or very soft. The fences are average
Analysis
The most valuable race on the card and one for the survival of the fittest over a 4 mile energy sapping soft (good to soft in places) going at Hexham
As this is a new race there are no recent trends or history to draw from. So, my simple approach will be to eliminate horses that don’t have the comments “through stayer” in their form commentaries.
Shorted listed are
Harlov – “Revels in stamina sapping conditions”, stays 3m6f, has solid form at this level, toprated
Supreme Breeze – “Modest staying chaser”, best form on right-handed tracks
Mini Sensation - “enjoys a stamina test and stays extreme distances. Suited by soft and heavy going”. Hard to win with
Huka Lodge – “Loves the mud” but raised 13lbs by the handicapper.
It was strange that Harlov, Supreme Breeze and Mini Sensation all raced in a similar event at Carlisle (4 Oct 2005). On that day Supreme Breeze and Mini Sensation were pulled up and Harlov finished last of those who completed the course. Prep run ? Hmmm which one of these is primed for a win today.
The warm favourite is Capybara who is relatively unexposed and won a maiden steeple chase over 3m1f at this track. He may go onto score again, he may “bounce”. Either way this is a big step up grade and distance and should be opposed.
With all the money on what I believe to be a false favourite, there is value to be had in selecting two "against the field" from the short-list.
Top rated Harlov is selected given that he is the only runner flying the flag for the stable at Hexham today. I’m going to take a tilt with the selection of Mini Sensation. Jonjo and McCoy rarely grace their presence at this track so it must be the lure of the prize money on offer.
posted by Slipperytoad @ 11/16/2005 09:29:00 am
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Almost!!
Racing Post Comments
A valuable prize on offer for this marathon affair, which was run at a sound gallop from the outset.
SUPREME BREEZE, who is only a pony, lacks nothing in guts or staying power, and he powered home in battling style to get the better of the runner-up in a thrilling duel from the last. Clearly all the better for his comeback outing, he plainly stays really well.
Mini Sensation, at his best on soft ground and over long distances, went down fighting in second, having been in the van throughout.
Capybara ran a thoroughly honest race in third. Although under pressure from a fair way out, he stuck to his guns in pleasing style.
Harlov, all the better for his comeback outing, acquitted himself well, as did Pass Me By, though the latter did not get home quite as well as the principals.
The rest were well beaten with Falchion, who made a couple of ricks on the way round, leading them home.
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