Lingfield - 1:50 (29 Nov 2005)
1:50 1m - Littlewoods Betdirect Handicap (Class 4) 3yo+
Course Description
A left handed, turning track, 10f round, with a run in of less than 2f. Despite the left turning nature of the track, the expected low draw bias is not borne out by the draw statistics so at most distances winners can come from any position. The all weather surface is polytrack but rides in such a way that prominent runners should be opposed.
Draw Bias at 1m
No draw bias as this distance with the exception of stall 12 which has a poor record in 1 mile handicaps (1 win from 109). Therefore other handicapping factors come into play such as ability at this grade, handicap mark, running style (i.e. pace preference) and suitability on the all-weather polytrack surface.
Analysis
A tricky handicap to fathom upon my return from holiday and short listed are Waterside, Dr Thong, Screwdriver, Stoic Leader and Binanti
Waterside is on a winning handicap mark and made a bold effort last time out to come 5th after a 96 day course absence. Should be sharper today however he is yet to win at this grade and on pace profile he shapes as one that will make the early pace and set the race up for the closers.
Dr Thong ;-) is the improver in the field. Unexposed on the All-weather but showed a liking for this surface after a win last time out. Rasied in class today its hard to determine on previous form if this race might be a class jump too far. A worthy market leader.
Screwdriver showed signs of returning to form last time out 1½ lengths behind 2nd place Binanti unexposed over 8 furlongs however best form thus far has been over 7 furlongs.
Stoic Leader is extremely well handicapped (dropped 8lbs today) so has to be respected but form at this course/surface has been poor, along with the poor form of trainer at Lingfield.
So its top rated Binanti today. Has plenty of ability but based on the Racing Post race reports, they imply that he does not like to get his head in front (based on 2nd last time out). He was well backed that day and that run was from a relatively poor draw (wide stall 11). Today he returns to a winning distance and he already demonstrated that off this current handicap mark he’s got what it takes to win at this grade.
posted by Slipperytoad @ 11/29/2005 10:01:00 am
1 comments
News Feed
1 Comments:
Binanti was 3rd @ odds of 6/1. Note the change of tactics for Waterside. Dr Thong should be given another chance at a lower grade
Racing Post Comments
Another strongly-run contest sure to provide plenty of winners in the coming months and a change of tactics on WATERSIDE brought immediate reward. Previously the hare hunted down by the hounds, he stalked the trailblazers and Hail The Chief was his victim in the final furlong as he swept by enjoying his new role. On the face of it, any rating rise will make life difficult again for him but the change of tactics could have a refreshing effect on this consistent six-year-old, so he should not be written off next time.
Hail The Chief may be a veteran and a light of former years, but the handicapper is taking notice and this bold bid from the front was good enough to beat the rest impressively. This was a step back up in form after weak efforts and he obviously goes much better at this track than at Wolverhampton. Binanti could not go the pace downhill before staying on best of the rest. He remains hard to win with and his consistency gains him no respite from the handicapper.
Hayyanitook a strong grip and was held up at the back. He had an impossible task turning in and had to weave wide round a rival to get running room before coming home strongly. He can make amends.
Dr Thong did not get the clearest of runs off the home turn in midfield and is better than the bare form.
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