Warts and All (7th July 2006)

After a number of false dawns, some ill disciplined virtual bets and a few minor tweaks, the task of revamping my methods has been completed. I’ve documented and divided my selection method into 4 areas loosely based on approached advised to me by my mentor.

The first section looks to shortlist contenders i.e. those horses that have a chance based on handicap ratings i.e. “well in at the weights”. The second part uses traditional form analysis to further whittle down the contenders. The third and more important section uses alternative or “edge factors” to provide that all important slant on the race to keep me one step ahead of other punters. At the completion of these stages what remains is a shortlist where I can judge my opinion against the market which brings me to the final stage of the process.. value assessment.

Overall the process is serial in execution and requires that the source material (the short listed contenders) is accurate or the rest of the process will be rendered useless (… garbage in == garbage out …)

Therefore like all good processes I shall be collecting metrics after each stage to monitor and track progress. So for example, I shall measure the strike rate of the shortlist, strike rate after pace analysis, strike rate after values assessment etc etc.

As I explained (or bored) my friends recently I am now in a position to monitor my methods and determine (from data) where my strengths and weaknesses are.

Fully into execution mode now.. My virtual selections can be monitored via the following URL

http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/tips/tipster.php?id=6278