Lingfield - 10th Feb 2007
3:05 6f - pontins.com Handicap (Class 4)
3/1 Woodnook, 5/1 Briannsta, 11/2 Night Prospector, 15/2 Lucayos, 9/1 Quiet Times 12/1 Fromsong
Briannsta at the prices. Seems to be running well since switch to Clive Cox stable.. If Woodnook price drifts (> 3/1) he’ll be worth a punt also .. Night Prospector and Lucayos are up in class and will find this race too hot to handle.
3:40 1m 2f - Pontin's Holidays Handicap (Class 2)
5/4 Mighty, 13/8 Cusoon
A co-choice race with Cusoon being the value bet however Mighty is the more progressive of the two and a solid legitimate favourite. I’ll go with gut instincts this time.. No bet…
posted by Slipperytoad @ 2/09/2007 09:37:00 pm
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1 Comments:
Woodnook opened 2/1 touched 9/4 which was a tasty priced and won at 7/4.
Upon reflection I was trying to be too exact in my odds compilation (remember this is an art and not a science). Therefore I have decided to re-hash my odds conversation table and utilise the rounded down version as defined in Mark Cramer’s book “Value Handicapping”.
The “two horse” win strategy has also be amended to include the following
No horse going off at under 5/2 would will be considered for a win bet
If one horse meets criterion above and one does not, either pass the race or bet half Kelly stake on once horse (as advised by Dick Mitchell)
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