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Friday, February 09, 2007

Wolverhampton - 3:50 (9th Feb 2007)

3:50 5f 20yds - Pontin's Family Holidays Handicap (Class 4)

A race framed within narrow BHB ratings; plus in form well drawn speed horses’ racing around the tight bends of Wolverhampton, this race is a punters nightmare or a cracker depending on which side you swing .. “oooh … suits you sir!”

Pace is the main factor that will decide the outcome of this race given the number of runners that like to dominate the herd, so the tissue has been biased accordingly (pace accounting for approx. 60% of the total)

7/2 Canadian Danehill, 4/1 Figaro Flyer, 9/2 Tartatartufata, 6/1 Distinctly Game, 10/1 Efistorm, 14/1 Financial Times, 16/1 Almaty Express

I don’t subscribe to the notion that we should be siding with deep closers in this race as Wolverhampton’s running surface is unlike Lingfield where the jocks can make their assault for the finish line from the clouds. In a fast pace race at this track you still need to be running prominently when the lead horses get worn-out in the final furlong. I’m sure that I’m not the only one to notice the pace in the race; therefore changes in running styles could blow my logic to pieces.

Yep, Canadian Danehill has an obvious chance given the race conditions but he’s taking a bit of a step up in “class” (a relative term for all weather racing). I don’t think there’s more improvement in the tank for this 5yo. I can however see him obtaining one of the place spots so the exotics are binned for this race.

Selections are

Figaro Flyer nicely drawn in stall 2 and ran the best time of the meeting to win last time out. Was rated 84a back in 2005 so there could be more improvement.

Tartatartufata loves it here, ran well from a poor draw and tardy start to finish 4th in a fast time recently. Negatives are that she might be high in the weights (hence the claimer). Yep she has plenty of speed and might get involved in the pace dual between Almaty Express, Efistorm, Dress to Impress and Financial Times but she seems equally versatile in making the running or sitting behind the pace.

The well berthed and in form Distinctly Game was considered but Neil Callan has opted for Canadian Danehill and the decisions he’s made recently have been proven to be correct.

1 Comments:

At Friday, February 09, 2007 8:56:00 pm, Blogger Slipperytoad said...

Race abandoned due to adverse weather conditions.

 

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