Warts n All (3rd Feb 2007)

Not much to report this week..

The modified process for developing my initial betting forecast is proving to be very accurate and results are heading in the right direction.

In an effort to squeeze further efficiencies from my overall process I’ve decided now is the time to move from level stake betting to staking based on the Kelly Criterion (see useful links for further information)

The other key learning from reviewing results this week is that I have been overly aggressive in exotic plays (exactas and trifectas) when the favourite is likely to be placed in the frame (thereby yielding poor returns if I’m lucky to hit the correct perm).

The American handicapping literature recently purchased is again paying for itself and I now have a “bet, no bet” template/guide for playing exotics (based on the assessment of the favourite) which should stem the steady drip of money from my experimental fund for exotic bets