Southwell - 1:50 (22nd Feb 2007)

So much for my recent theories when handicapping low grade races. I did some reading/research last night and came across the following paragraph from Quirin’s Book “Thoroughbred Handicapping – State of the Art”

Handicappers are forever trying to surmise the pecking order among horses. While in the broad sense there is such a thing, it nevertheless remains a fact that horses of approximately the same class will often take turns beating each other over the course of a meeting. Whether this can be attributed to trips, trainer intent, or simply variations in the form cycle, the handicapper must proceed cautiously. When a field like this gathers, the wise handicapper often turns to the “stranger” in the field, the horse dropping down from a higher classification, shipping in from a neighbouring track or freshened recently. It would prove far too difficult to try to separate “regulars”, one from the other. They look too much alike. “Strangers” are unknown quantities, at least to some extent, and often go postward at decent odds as a result. If a reasonable case can be made for one of them, they may be the players only possible recourse in a field filled with “look-alikes”

Telling words! I’ve already amended my process to factor in this approach and pass lesser-of-evils races if I cant identify a “stranger”. However this was after I handicapped the race below. It shall be my last race under the old regime.

1:50 7f - Pontin's Holidays Handicap (Div I) (Class 6)

4/1 Penel, 9/2 Doctors Cave, 5/1 Favouring, 8/1 Mid Valley, 12/1 Wodhill Be, 16/1 Rocky Reppin

Penel & Doctors Cave 1pt

Penel is a Southwell specialist and is forgiven recent lukewarm efforts and seems ready to win over favoured distance. The pace profile of this race suggests “lone-early” indicating that Doctors Cave should control matters up front to run the race to suit. Additionally he was subject of a gamble which just failed last time out so I’m predicting that the stable will try to recoup losses today..