Southwell - 3:50 (13 Feb 2007)

3:50 6f - pontins.com Handicap (Class 2)

Red Cape emerges from a “key race” as highlighted by yours truly in the recent post

http://www.slipperytoad.co.uk/2007/01/posted-following-comments-on-racing.html#comments

5/4 Red Cape, 6/1 Desperate Dan, 8/1 Saviours Spirit, Quiet Times, 12/1 Prince Tum Tum, 15/1 Bahamian Pirate

A low priced overlay, I managed to secure slightly above my tissue last night on betfair but as I write, Red Cape’s price has well and truly dissipated into cyberspace. Hypothetically I should stop there..

However …

Pace analysis indicates “lone-early” with Desperate Dan who has course form trying to make all on returning to a surface he likes.

I’m not convinced by Saviours Spirit or Quiet Times and Price Tum Tum is berthed in the coffin box on my stats so, if all 8 runners remain at the off, the only other value plays are

Place bet Desperate Dan as he hangs on for minor honours.

Assuming Desperate Dan’s price is still big (> 10/1) at the off, the exacta or trifecta plays (at slightly higher stakes) are as follows

A. Red Cape B. Desperate Dan C. Saviours Spirit D. Quiet Times

A/B exacta = 1 line
A/B/CD trifeca = 2 lines

Hypothetically speaking of course