Wolverhampton - 4:50 (21st Feb 2007)

4:50 7f 32yds - Pontin's Holidays Handicap (Class 6)

The reason for choosing this race is to try and learn something from yesterday’s event.

During my post race review (“Kaizen”) I determine that I had made an error in race categorisation (see Mark Cramer book “Value Betting”) and the race was not totally “a lesser-of-evils” race but a “One-Factor” race; that factor being ability over 7 furlongs which is considered to be a specialist distance on the flat (along with 1mile 1 furlong).

Applying this approach to this event; ability over 7 furlongs accounts for most of the points going into the 100% tissue, the Draw and Recent Form being the others.

4/1 Haroldini, Mountain Pass, 8/1 Marmooq, Ebraam, 10/1 Carcinetto, 12/1 Cool Sands

The current jolly, Cool Sands is vulnerable given his poor form on the Wolverhampton polytrack surface (win/place/run – 0/1/7 in the last two years) which means that an Exacta/Trifecta punt may prove lucrative (see below)

Haroldini and Mountain Pass recent races over 7 furlongs were in good times and both are in form (1pt selections). Haroldini returns to his favoured surface and distance and is perferred of the two as Mountain pass is on an unproven BHB handicap mark.

A. Haroldini, B. Mountain Pass C. Marmooq D. Ebraam E. Carcinetto

Exacta – AB/ABC
Trfecta – AB/ABC/ABCDE