Southwell - 4:30 (20th Feb 2007)

4:30 7f - Bonusprint.com Handicap (Class 4)

Tricky race and inclined to sit this one out until 10 min’s before the off and see how the market develops

3/1 Rebellious Spirit, 9/2 Orpen Wide, Gifted Gamble, 8/1 Mandarin Spirit, 10/1 Tyzack

As I write, progressive Rebellious Spirit currently sits just above my tissue on the exchanges. With an excellent recent run in a fast time the only negatives are a perceived preference (by me) for 8 furlongs and poor recent stable form.

Contrast this with Gifted Gamble whose win/place/run form is abysmal 1/15/34, is untried on the surface and sire stats for Southwell are on the poor side. However when Jamie Spencer pilots any charge from the Ryan stable he has a 43% strike rate..

If Tyzack ever reverted to old form he’d blow this lot away at a tasty price. Throw into the pot negatives about Orpen Wide and Mandarin Spirit what remains is a classic lesser-of-evils race.

What’s the selection process for this type of race? Oh yeah …. “eny meny miny mo … … … … … …”