Warts and All (21st Mar 2007)

And then it struck me.

Maybe it’s because I’m still in the post holiday high, but post analysis of yesterday’s race may mark another notch on the rung of my developmental ladder.

A long time ago I’ve recognised that that when I eventually earn a living from the GG’s the ability to seek profitable plays from the mid-week dross served up by the BHB (class5/6 races) is imperative.

“Decent” events where form can be relied upon (Grade 2, listed, Group races) are few and far between, especially during the winter All Weather season. These events also have a sinister downside in that they are also contentious (as recent results from Cheltenham will testify) with many proven winners at the grade. This presents another puzzle for us punters to solve; unlike low grade affairs where many contestants can be eliminated easily using basic handicapping factors.

Pre holiday my approach to these “lesser of evils” races has been pretty standard, but yesterdays race indicated that there was a spot play lurking in the mists of handicapping trees. That “angle” was a pace bias in favour of Count Cougar who was able to dominate the race on a surface that at the time assisted front runners.

This got me thinking and last night I reviewed my notebook from this and previous seasons to reveal other angles that seem to unlock the cryptographic races that are graded class 5 and below. They are:

. False Favourite lay
. Lone Early Pace
. Pace/Draw Biased
. Stranger in a field of proven losers
. Course Specialists
. other plays that will remain undisclosed at this moment in time.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not advocating a wholesale change of approach but a change of emphasis when handicapping lesser of evils races where the winner is not necessarily the best horse but the one best suited to the conditions of the day.

Lets coin a new phrase for these races.. “No Spot Play.. No Play” pass the race.

By way of an example on a quite day for my usual betting at Southwell, Lingfield and Wolverhampton I looked at the following races at Kempton today

3:35 6f - play blackjack at intercasino.co.uk handicap (div i) (class 6)
4:10 6f - play blackjack at intercasino.co.uk handicap (div ii) (class 6)

Both low grade affairs for horses BHB rated 46-50, basement barrel stuff

In the 3:35 my tissue is as follows

4/1 Tuscan Flyer, 9/2 Double M, Cool Tiger, 6/1 Edin Burgher, 8/1 Teyaar

As I write Black Oval (win/place/run record of 0/8/50) and King Of Charm (win/place/run record 0/1/10) vie for favouritism on the exchanges. Crazy stuff

The spot play here is (and hence the tissue) is that Tuscan Flyer is figured to dominate in a field of one-paced plodders and presents a tempting each-way play at 9/1

In the 4:10 my tissue is as follows

4/1 Firework, 9/2 Feelin Irie, 6/1 Mind Alert, Piddies Pride, Christian Bendix

Out of 301 races, this lot have only managed 20 wins between them! Currently the opinion of the crowd roughly matches mine and there no spot plays identified, Feeling Irie maybe for a place position but otherwise.. no play.