Chester 2:20 - Alexander Events Handicap Stakes (10th May 2005)

This race will be all over in a flash and as indicated by the Racing Post Spotlight writer, if you blink you’ll miss it!.

Through the wonders of satellite technology (I recently subscribed to Racing UK) I was able to watch the recording of yesterdays racing. Having reviewed the Chester draw stats you get a sense that being drawn low is an advantage.

On good/good to soft in places or softer going, stalls 1 to 6 won 16 of 20 races 80 %.
(Courtesy of http://www.startingstalls.co.uk/)

However, when you see the draw bias in action for real then it’s a different matter. Drawn low IS the only place to be!

The other factor is the precipitation that fell on the course today, how disappointing. From the pictures the fillies in the crowd were dressed to impress!

Anyway I digress, back to handicapping. Factor in the low draw bias which is accentuated by the rainfall yesterday and lastnight and we should be looking for

1. Low berthed horses as the historical stats indicate that no horse drawn higher than stall 8 has won this race in 10 years. Public health warning! The market leader has been drawn low during this period time and has put in a good run for the bookies each and every year!

2. Horse with a preference for soft going.

9/2 Kay Two, 6/1 Guto, 9/1 Bigalos Bandit, Mr Wolf, 12/1 Overstayed, Turn On The Style

Kay Two will love the conditions and though running well to come 2nd after a long course absence, this is a step in class and he’s exposed at this level.

Guto is an unknown having shown his best form at listed level as a 3yo on soft going but has a 260 day course absence to overcome. Positives are he runs well fresh and loves to force the pace which is a must at this couse and distance to take advantage of this low berth.

Considering the pace in the race “unexposed” Bigalos Bandit likes to run just behind the leaders and in this race there are many who like to set a good clip. He may be the one to poach the race on the line with a late run.

Typically Dandy Nicholls has taken a blunderbuss approach to this race with three entries from his stable. This is Bigalos Bandits's third run for the Nicholls stable (previously with J J Quinn) and Dandy's won this race for the last two years so Bigalos Bandit cannot be discounted easily drawn in stall 3 with experienced Chester jockey piloting (Francis Norton)

Overstayed returns after a 358 day course absence and to coin a phrase “is best watched in the market”

“What’s the time” Mr Wolf does all his best running on firm ground at Pontefract over 6 furlongs, hence the disparity between my opinion (tissue) and the market. By my reckoning he’ll set the race up for something drawn 2-8.

So pending adverse market moves before off its looking like win bets on Guto and Bigalos Bandit.