Aintree 4:15 - John Smith's Grand National Chase (14th Apr 2007)

Grand National day! A day for professional and mug punters alike to get wrapped up in the hype and excitement which is the best single race of the year.

Yours truly is on a three timer this year and as I write I see the esteemed Tom Segal of the Racing Post “Pricewise” fame has tipped up the exact same selections I have.

I was already on Point Barrow (at big odds) after his win in the Irish version last year

http://www.slipperytoad.co.uk/phpbb/viewtopic.php?t=5

As recent trends pointed to this event being a key race for subsequent English Grand National winners.

The well handicapped Numbersixvalverde, was selected to again cover the Irish statistical angle (they’ve cleaned up in recent years), however the unseasonably warm weather may have ruined his chances as the predicted ground conditions will not be in his favour (more on this subject later).

With big odds secured on Point Barrow last September, I was able to trade the theoretical winnings on other selections in this race.

Assuming that the statistics are correct and the winner will emerge from the first eight in the betting and I’ve covered two of the positions in the selections above, to make it three, I’ve gone with the stat that indicates favourites are poor value in a race of this type. Hence the elimination of Joe’s Edge from consideration.

After taking a contrarian view of the race and ignoring weight, the ratings indicated that Hedgehunter had a squeak. What I hear you say, no horse can ever win the national carrying more than 11st!

In times gone by this used to be the case, however now we are in a era where (with one eye on the commercial aspect surrounding this race) the BHB handicappers tinker with the normal process for determining how much weight is allotted to each horse. Today we have pseudo handicap, the weights are adjusted in order to entice the best horses. Noticed over the years how Gold Cup standard horses have crept into the race as trainers have realised that Phil Smith (BHB senior handicapper) was not going to dump a hefty burden on the backs of their horses which would diminish their chances of winning?

This is my rational for selecting Hedgehunter. Although his preparation is not been the best, what sealed it for me was after a reviewing the pace figures yesterday evening. Again recent history points to the need to race prominently in the Grand National to avoid the carnage behind. Of all the pace horses “if fit”; Hedgehunter is the only one that is able to make the running and (this is the important bit) maintain that early pace to have enough left in the tank to contest in the final furlongs after the elbow turn. The run up the hill to the finishing line has seen the chances of a number of horse fade as their energy reserves dry up. It’s a well trodden path for Hedgehunter.

The selection of Mckelvey was relatively easy; the ground. Many of horses in this race apply their trade on rain soften ground (or worse) throughout the winter. In fact, summer national hunt races are considered to be specialist events for horses that like to hear their hoofs rattle when racing. With the drying conditions, I’m assuming that many of the horses in this race will hate every yard of the 4m1f distance and not run up to their best. Mckelvey is proven at this distance and going (he won the Summer Grand National), has being laid out for the race and more importantly has experience over the grand national fences..

Can punting be that simple?